A powerful El Niño is strengthening over the tropical Pacific, with the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) warning that the climate phenomenon is likely to remain in place until February 2027. The latest forecast points to an exceptionally strong event, with ocean temperatures in the central and eastern Pacific already far above normal and expected to rise further in the coming months.
The warning comes at a time when extreme weather has already become a major concern across several parts of the world. From intense heat to heavy rain and floods, unusual weather patterns have repeatedly disrupted normal life this year.
For India, the developing El Niño could influence temperatures and rainfall patterns in the months ahead. However, a very strong El Niño does not automatically mean the same weather impacts everywhere, and its effect on India will also depend on other ocean and atmospheric conditions.
Why WMO is worried about this El Niño
WMO forecasts suggest an “exceptionally high likelihood of nearly 100%” that El Niño conditions will continue through February 2027. The organisation said this level of confidence reflects strong agreement between different forecasting systems.
The event is also expected to become stronger before reaching its peak towards the end of 2026. Its influence could continue into 2027 even after the Pacific Ocean reaches its maximum warming.
UN Secretary-General António Guterres described the phenomenon as an El Niño that is effectively being “supersized”, warning that rising ocean temperatures are increasing the risks from extreme weather.
WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo has also called for stronger preparation, saying governments and communities need to act ahead of possible disruptions to agriculture, water, health, energy and disaster management.
Pacific Ocean temperatures are unusually high
One of the clearest signs of the strengthening El Niño is the rapid warming of the tropical Pacific. The Niño 3.4 index, a widely used measure of sea surface temperatures in the central-eastern equatorial Pacific, averaged 1.5°C above normal during May-July 2026. In July, the anomaly reached around 2°C.
Weekly readings then climbed further, reaching roughly 2.2°C to 2.6°C above average between late July and mid-August. The unusual warmth is not restricted to the ocean surface. During July and early August, temperatures below the surface were more than 8°C above average in some areas. These conditions are providing strong support for a continued and intensifying El Niño.
Will India really have no winter this year?
The developing weather pattern has raised questions about whether India could see a weak winter in 2026-27. A strong El Niño can alter atmospheric circulation and shift temperature and rainfall patterns across distant parts of the world. WMO's latest seasonal forecast points to a broad risk of above-normal temperatures across almost all land areas during September-November 2026.
But, the intensity of El Niño alone does not determine what happens in every country. Local weather conditions are influenced by several other factors, including the Indian Ocean and Atlantic Ocean. For India, the final winter outlook will therefore depend on how these different climate drivers interact.
India faces a complicated weather outlook
The strengthening El Niño is particularly important for India because changes in Pacific Ocean conditions can affect large-scale atmospheric circulation and the country's rainfall patterns.
The WMO has also highlighted the expected development of a positive Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during the September-November period. Its seasonal mean is forecast at around 0.9°C for September-October-November 2026.
At the same time, parts of the tropical Atlantic are also expected to remain warmer than normal. These additional factors can strengthen, weaken or alter the usual effects associated with El Niño. That is why a single El Niño-based forecast cannot be used to predict India's weather months in advance with certainty.
Heat, drought and floods could all remain a risk
A very strong El Niño increases the likelihood of significant changes in rainfall, temperatures and atmospheric circulation around the world. Some regions could experience prolonged dry conditions, increasing pressure on water supplies and raising the risk of wildfires. Other areas could see episodes of unusually heavy rainfall and flooding.
That contrast is one of the biggest challenges posed by large-scale climate events. The same global climate phenomenon can produce very different outcomes depending on location and season.
WMO's September-November outlook already indicates widespread chances of above-normal temperatures, while rainfall conditions are expected to vary considerably from one region to another.
Why global warming makes the situation more serious
El Niño itself is a naturally occurring part of the Earth's climate system. It develops when surface waters in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific become unusually warm. However, it is unfolding against a background of long-term global warming.
The combination means that individual El Niño events can occur on top of an already warmer climate. This raises concerns about extreme temperatures and other weather-related risks.
The 2023-24 El Niño period coincided with exceptionally high global temperatures, with 2024 becoming the warmest year on record. The concern now is that the developing 2026 event could add further pressure to an already warming climate system.
What happens next?
El Niño usually develops between March and June and reaches its strongest phase between November and February. Its effects on global temperatures can continue even after the peak of ocean warming. That timing makes the next several months particularly important.
WMO says forecasts can give governments, businesses, humanitarian agencies and communities valuable time to prepare for potential disruptions. The organisation is calling for early action rather than waiting for extreme weather events to occur.
For India, the key takeaway is not that winter will disappear completely, but that the traditional weather pattern could become more unpredictable as a very strong El Niño interacts with other climate drivers.
The coming months will show how much the Pacific warming translates into changes over the Indian subcontinent.
