Candidates for the Presidency agree on the assessment that the next government will have to face the increase in public debt, but they disagree on the size of the fiscal adjustment and how to control expenses. There are also differences in topics with strong electoral appeal, such as the 6x1 scale, Social Security and the MEI revenue limit.
At the same time, campaigns avoid detailing how they intend to put their proposals into practice. Among the six presidential candidates analyzed by Folha, there is everything from maintaining the current fiscal framework, with adjustments, to revoking the rule and adopting new limits for public spending.
The survey also shows convergence in measures such as the reduction of tax exemptions and the expansion of infrastructure concessions, while proposals with a greater impact on workers and Social Security beneficiaries divide the candidacies.
The lack of detail occurs in a campaign marked by other issues. The Banco Master crisis, INSS fraud and the financing of the film "Dark Horse" occupied relevant space in the dispute and reduced the candidates' exposure to questions about how they intend to conduct economic policy.
The Folha report mapped the main economic proposals and candidacy statements of Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva (PT), Flávio Bolsonaro (PL), Augusto Cury (Avante), Ronaldo Caiado (PSD), Renan Santos (Missão) and Romeu Zema (Novo) in recent months.
C-Level Entrevista, a Folha videocast, also carried out a special series of interviews with spokespeople for the campaigns' economic programs. To complement the investigation, the report asked the six candidates for their position on key proposals in the economic debate.
The map of proposals brings together adjustment measures to reduce the growth of public debt, changes to Social Security, payroll tax relief and the end of the 6x1 scale, among other points.
Until now, an abundance of diagnoses and economic indicators have prevailed regarding the current situation of the economy, with high interest rates for a prolonged period, indebtedness and high public debt.
In common between the candidacies of Lula and his five main opponents from center-right parties is the perception that it will be necessary to approve a minimum set of measures in agreement with Congress this year.
This assessment was signaled by the spokespeople of the two candidates leading the polls: the Minister of Finance, Dario Durigan, and Daniella Marques, on behalf of Flávio Bolsonaro.
But, as the candidates spoke little about the economy, there is no clarity on how far the presidential candidates' commitment to their teams' proposals goes.
In Lula's case, the president adopted electoral kindnesses in the campaign, with an impact on public accounts, and insisted in his speech that he has fiscal responsibility and that he made surpluses in his governments.
But he did not give any stronger public signal that he will adopt Durigan's suggestion, passed on to Faria Lima, to tighten fiscal rules and triggers in the fiscal framework to contain the advance in mandatory expenses. At a rally, the president even said that it was necessary to "stop this nonsense about creating a surplus."
The surplus in accounts is necessary, according to economists, to stabilize public debt, which would result in a consistent drop in interest rates.
Flávio Bolsonaro, on the other hand, says that there is no other way without making a fiscal adjustment, but he publicly disapproved of tougher measures that had been pointed out by members of his team in closed meetings with the market, such as the removal of the indexation of social and Social Security benefits to minimum wage adjustments — in this way, the adjustment would be made only by inflation.
"There is no need to make savings on retirees," said the PL candidate, stating that he would make fiscal adjustments without changing Social Security or the policy of increasing the minimum wage.
Flávio Bolsonaro listed the sale of properties (measured on the revenue side) and cuts in the number of ministries and state bureaucracy (measured on the expenditure side) as part of the adjustment he wants to implement.
Daniella Marques, his advisor, spoke of a cut of R$300 billion, without presenting an account of how he will make the promise come true. In an interview with C-Level, he stated that he would not tell.
Last week, the report made another attempt to hear the candidate about the topics during his visit to the executive flight terminal at Brasília Airport. He didn't respond.
When asked to comment on the lack of economic debate, the former Minister of Mines and Energy and member of Flávio Bolsonaro's team Adolfo Sachsida responded in a generic way: "With prudence, serenity, technical preparation, conviction and political leadership, we will put Brazil back on the path to prosperity. Brazil has a solution", he stated.
For Felipe Salto, chief economist at Warren Investimentos, the electoral period ended up being contaminated by topics far from the need to deepen public policies.
"It is essential to know the proposals and guidelines of each candidate. In this sense, the first round is much more marked by the comparison of biographies", he says.
For him, presidential candidates who run for President for the first time would be expected to be careful in constructing proposals. "It's the opposite of what we saw. There are people proposing to reduce the tax burden. It's evidence of ignorance of the Brazilian Budget, to say the least", he states.
Lula's campaign coordinator, José Sérgio Gabrielli, said in an interview with Folha that it was a loss for the country that the first round election was focused on the STF (Supreme Federal Court) crisis and not on discussing Brazil's problems.
"We presented some ideas in our electoral program, of course with a high level of generality, because they really have to be. But we have details and the debate was very closed," he said.
The promises to reduce tax exemptions and advance concessions to expand the country's infrastructure are the only topics on which there is unanimity among the presidential candidates.
Proposals with wide repercussions among voters and the productive sector have a greater number of candidates on the fence.
This is the case, for example, of the end of the 6x1 scale and the de-indexation of social benefits and Social Security to the minimum wage, which would make these programs readjusted only by inflation.
Public debt hit a record 82.9% of GDP (Gross Domestic Product) in August, the highest level in five years. The advisors agree on the need to promote a fiscal adjustment to stabilize it, but differ on how to achieve an adequate level of surplus in the accounts.
Lula intends to maintain the fiscal framework and only plans to make adjustments.
The other candidates claim that they must implement a spending ceiling with stricter standards to control public expenditure and criticize the current fiscal rule, in force since 2023. In the case of Flávio Bolsonaro, the ceiling would be established using debt/GDP ratio levels as a reference.
Ronaldo Caiado promised to propose a fiscal emergency constitutional amendment to Congress, determining that the government's primary expenses cannot grow more than 50% of the GDP growth expected for the year.
Romeu Zema defended a tougher fiscal rule. Augusto Cury's campaign considers that the framework did not work and intends to present a new proposal, with spending limits for public purchases.
Renan Santos promises to revoke the framework and implement a transition PEC with adjustments that, according to the campaign, will lead to savings of R$1 trillion by 2031.
Renan Santos and Romeu Zema defend decoupling the health and education floor from tax revenue, a rule provided for in the Constitution. Lula, Flávio, Caiado and Cury are against the measure.
Treasury estimates show that, from 2027 onwards, discretionary expenses related to health and education will need to grow, on average, by 2.5% and 9.3%, respectively, so that constitutional minimums are met.
“Instead of having a spending floor, I prefer to have a results floor,” Carlos da Costa, economic advisor to Zema’s campaign, said at C-Level Interview.
"This is not under discussion, but improving the efficiency of social programs. One of the measures we took is a kind of adjustment within the floors. The Nest Egg entered the education floor", stated Dario Durigan at C-Level.
The end of the 6x1 scale, which allows workers to have two days of mandatory weekly rest, and the increase in the MEI (Individual Microentrepreneur) revenue ceiling are policies with popular appeal that divide the candidates.
The day's proposal must be analyzed again in the Senate plenary after the first round. The project on the MEI limit, from R$ 81 thousand to R$ 150 thousand, was approved by a committee in the Chamber and remains under analysis by the House.
Lula is betting on these measures as an electoral showcase. Augusto Cury and Ronaldo Caiado are also in favor of the projects.
Romeu Zema and Renan Santos are against the end of the 6x1 scale. Both classify the measure as "electoral" and without practical results.
Ronaldo Caiado was in favor of reducing the matchday to 5x2, but also criticized the timing, which he called electoral. He has already defended, as an alternative, what would be a free negotiation regime between employer and employee, without further details.
Flávio Bolsonaro avoids taking an explicit stance against the PEC, but he is also a critic of the proposal. His government plan defends a model in which workers can set their own workload, but ignores the real challenges of a measure like this, such as Social Security financing.
