An Italy split in two, with the South showing signs of growth and a North, especially the North-East, which is slowing down activity and no longer seems to be the locomotive of the country. This is the scenario that emerges from the trend in bank loans region by region, photographed by the Abi report updated at the end of June. But the current trend of contraction in productive activity is also confirmed by the data from the Abi Cerved Outlook on the trend of the rate of deterioration of loans, i.e. those that transform into bank bad loans, released on 2 October. Loans to businesses grow much more, in the year-on-year variation, in the Center and South and instead increase slightly, if not significantly, in the North. Such a clear gap had never been seen in previous updates, even though the phenomenon of the increase in loans to the South has been underway for several months now.
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The numbers that immediately catch the eye concern Val d'Aosta, which shows a contraction of 15.5 percent, and Lazio, where instead financing increases by 12.3 percent, even if a driving effect in this region may be due to the presence of the public administration. The most important increases after that of Lazio are recorded in Calabria and Sicily, where the positive variation stands at 4.6 percent. Umbria follows in the Center, with a +4.2 percent, and then again in the South, Puglia (+3.7%) and Basilicata (+3.1%). Shifting attention to the North, the best data is found in Lombardy, with +2.7 percent; followed by Emilia Romagna (+2.3%), Trentino Alto Adige (+1.6%) and Piedmont (1%). Then there is a string of minus signs: Liguria -3.7%, Friuli Venezia Giulia - 4.3%, Tuscany -1.3 percent, Veneto -0.5 percent. The average trend of loans to businesses in the country recorded an increase of 2.6%, lower than that of loans to families, which increased by 3.2 percent. In this case the trend in the various regions is more homogeneous: the most significant increases are seen in Emilia Romagna (+3.9%) and Campania (+3.8%). Also good in Sicily (+3.7%), Veneto (+3.7%), Calabria (+3.5%), Tuscany (+3.4%), Abruzzi (+3.1%). In the other regions there is a positive sign and increases around or above 2 percent.
ABI-Cerved estimates indicate an increase in deterioration rates in 2026 in all business size classes, with increases of between 0.1 and 0.2 percentage points: micro businesses go from 2.8% in 2025 to 3.0% in 2026, large businesses from 1.7% to 1.9%, small and medium businesses, respectively, from 2.0% to 2.2% and from 1.8% to 2.0%. The flow of new loans in default affects all the sectors considered: if construction records, as it has for years now, the most significant increase, from 2.9% in 2025 to 3.3%, the most striking data is that industry increases from 2.5% to 2.7%, the only sector that exceeds the level of the pre-Covid period, 2.3%, due to the significant contraction in production. Services from 2.6% to 2.7%. More in detail, in industry it is small businesses - the engine that drives the country's economy - that record the highest increases (from 1.8% in 2025 to 2.3%), while in micro-businesses they are more limited (from 3.0% to 3.2%). Compared to the geographical trend, estimates for 2026 indicate an increase in deterioration rates across the country, with the gap between the most risky and least risky areas narrowing slightly. And also in this case there is another significant fact: the greatest increases are recorded in the North-East, where the risk increases by 0.3 percentage points (even if this is the territorial area with the lowest risk). Followed by the South and Islands (+0.2 points) and the North-West and Center (+0.1 points). The South is confirmed as the area with the highest rate of deterioration, with a rate of 3.7% and a gap of 1.7 percentage points compared to the North-East, which has the lowest rate (2.0%). North-West and Center stand at 2.5% and 3.2% respectively.
«Clearly diversified plurality of elements that emerge with indications of loans to businesses growing significantly more in the Center and Southern Italy compared to Northern Italy, which is also the result of the substantial investments of the Pnrr and the Zes, while loans to families have a more homogeneous growth in Italy even if prevalent in percentage terms in the Southern Italy» Antonio Patuelli, president of the ABI, explained to IlSole24ore. The slowdown in the German economy also affected the performance of Northern Italy. According to Patuelli, in detail by the regions «the strong growth of Lazio, +12.3%, and that of various regions of the South, such as Sicily, Calabria, Puglia and Basilicata, stands out for businesses first and foremost, while the decrease in Val d'Aosta, Liguria, Friuli Venezia Giulia and also Veneto in the North, and Tuscany in the Center is worrying. Pay attention to the risks of businesses in northern Italy."
