Forecast: Fewer households by 2050 – East particularly affected
According to a forecast by the Federal Statistical Office, there will be fewer households in Germany in 2050.
Quick Look
- According to a forecast by the Federal Statistical Office, the number of private households in Germany could fall from 41.8 million to 39.7 to 40.9 million by 2050.
- This would be the first reversal of the trend that has been ongoing since 1990.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Since German reunification in 1990, the number of private households has risen continuously.
The Federal Statistical Office has calculated how the number of households could develop. Which scenario occurs depends on births, life expectancy and immigration.
Wiesbaden. According to a forecast by the Federal Statistical Office, there will be fewer households in Germany in 2050. According to forecasts, the number of private households could decline by two to five percent from 41.8 million in the initial year of 2024 to 40.9 to 39.7 million in 2050. The forecast assumes a “moderate development in births, life expectancy and immigration or assuming a relatively old population”.
Since German reunification in 1990, the number of private households has been increasing. According to statisticians, this would reverse for the first time by 2050. “Only with a relatively young population in the future – i.e. a significantly increasing birth rate combined with high net immigration” would the number of private households not fall.
Significantly more single-person households aged 60 and over
Single-person households already make up the largest group. According to the forecast, their number will increase from 17.9 million in 2024 to 18.5 million (relatively old population) to 19.2 million (relatively young population) in 2050.
The number of single-person households among those aged 20 to under 40 is expected to decrease. For those aged 40 to under 60, the changes vary depending on the calculation variant. For the groups aged 60 and over, all variants show increases.
Up to twelve percent fewer private households in the east
How the development progresses differs depending on the region: in the western German states and city states, the respective variant is important. “In the eastern German states, however, the number of private households decreases in each of the three variants considered,” says the Federal Office.
The decline would be greatest in a relatively old population. “Then in 2050 there would be twelve percent fewer private households in the eastern German states than in the original year of 2024.”
Open Questions
- What specific regional measures will be taken?
- How strong is immigration in the long term?
