Puigdemont returns; Is Rufián leaving?
Quick Look
- After the unilateral declaration of independence in 2017, Carles Puigdemont decided to go into exile in Belgium after a meeting at the Montserrat monastery where his political future was debated.
- Nine years later, the application of the amnesty has equalized his judicial situation with that of Oriol Junqueras, allowing his possible active return to Catalan politics despite internal tensions in Junts and the competition with Aliança Catalana.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
Following Catalonia's unilateral declaration of independence on October 1, 2017, Carles Puigdemont and other pro-independence leaders faced judicial charges for rebellion and disobedience. Puigdemont fled to Belgium to avoid imprisonment, beginning an exile that has lasted for nine years. The recent application of the amnesty law has partially annulled those charges, reopening the debate about his active political return.
The fate of Carles Puigdemont after the unilateral declaration of independence in 2017 passed through a meeting room at the Montserrat monastery. A small group of collaborators evaluated, at the request of the president, the what, how and where. The tension between Puigdemont and the PDECat was increasing and many thought that what was being settled in that room with views of the Llobregat valley, coke and chocolate on the table, was a post-convergent split. What was put on the table was the path that the president should follow.
The dichotomy between the figure of Mandela or Assange sounded grandiose. Maybe Otegi or Assange? The reference of the Bildu leader was uncomfortable due to his convictions for glorifying terrorism, although the six years in prison by the Bateragune resulted in a European sentence against the State. Otegi has been one of the leaders who has visited Puigdemont in Waterloo. “Let's see if we'll end up making a Tarradellas,” someone thought at the meeting. Thirty-eight years in exile until his triumphant return in 1977. Tarradellas returned without councillors, and Puigdemont, probably too. The triumphant return remains to be seen. The Puigdemont momentum is an electoral unknown.
Although time has erased some agreements between the leaders of the process, there was unanimity in the Puigdemontista and ERC ranks that the figure of the president had to be protected. There were no doubts “nor particular votes,” they say. Puigdemont had to leave, but at that meeting "no one considered that he would last nine years." It was argued that taking refuge abroad allowed one to “stand up” without submitting to the “repressive” structures of the State. Doing it from Belgium was the safest legally and the European capital became the best platform.
The plan included the councilors, although it was agreed that it was a personal decision. Oriol Junqueras never thought about leaving, some stayed with their bags packed, seven left, five returned... Lluís Puig left twice. The commitment to not use the decision that each one made as a weapon of discredit was also unanimous. Over time came the disqualifications of those who never risked anything: Gabriel Rufián even called Puigdemont a “moron.”
Was it worth it? “It is still a victory,” they now respond in Junts despite the personal and political costs. Time has also healed wounds between converging families. “Everyone is coming back.” Those who criticized the process from within, today see themselves comforted with a Junts that is more similar to Convergència despite the fact that the polls deny them support against Aliança Catalana.
And the independence competition is compensated. Nine years later, the application of the amnesty once again places the leader of Junts and Junqueras on equal footing in the system. Political normalization in Catalonia has been preached for years, but until now it could not be considered effective. The paradox is that the pardons and amnesty are the result of Pedro Sánchez's arithmetic needs and virtue ends with the same votes that invested him in 2023.
Puigdemont received Jordi Turull and Albert Batet, the vice presidents of Junts, in Waterloo on Monday when Sánchez had already called the elections. The judicial tamtam predicted that, after the decision of the Constitutional Court, the arrest order would fall. It was held, but Judge Llarena's order is full of caveats, the president is in no hurry and the electoral urgencies are less when Sílvia Orriols does not enter the general election equation. Another thing is the mayors. They are counting on the tour planned by Puigdemont to grease the machinery even if it does not clarify his future in the party.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Carles Puigdemont will announce his active political return to Catalonia within the next 3 months to participate in the regional or state electoral campaign.
Likely · Within months
The application of the amnesty will generate new judicial appeals before the Constitutional Court or the Court of Justice of the European Union by popular accusations or opposition political parties.
Possible · Within months
Open Questions
- When does Carles Puigdemont plan to officially return to Catalonia to participate in active politics?
- How will his possible return affect the internal dynamics of Junts and its relationship with ERC?
- What conditions could the Supreme Court or the Constitutional Court impose upon his return despite the amnesty?
- Will Junts be able to recover electoral ground against Aliança Catalana and ERC in the next elections?





