A historic summit, but for what purpose? The White House confirmed, Friday, November 13, a meeting between the Russian, Chinese and American presidents, Thursday, November 19 in Shenzhen (China). This interview, on the sidelines of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (Apec) meeting, constitutes a first for Vladimir Putin, Xi Jinping and Donald Trump. Neither Beijing nor Moscow have yet confirmed the meeting, having simply mentioned discussions in recent weeks.
Such a prospect has aroused fears of a temptation for Washington, Beijing and Moscow to divide the world between them during a new “Yalta”. During the historic conference of February 1945, the American Franklin D. Roosevelt, the British Winston Churchill and the Soviet Joseph Stalin, allied against Nazi Germany, met in a palace near Yalta, a seaside resort in Crimea, to share the map of the world and Europe.
“Please, no surprises”
The Chinese meeting, which will mark a new stage in the return to the international scene of Vladimir Putin, isolated by the West since the invasion of Ukraine in 2022, primarily worries Europeans. Excluded from the summit, the representatives of the Old Continent have already had great difficulty being represented during the peace talks between Russians and Ukrainians in Abu Dhabi (United Arab Emirates), Tuesday and Wednesday. However, the discussions concerned the future European security architecture, according to Moscow. “We really don't want this to turn into Yalta 2, 3, 4, with a redistribution of spheres of influence,” Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky was alarmed at the end of October.
What is disturbing about a Xi-Trump-Putin summit is “the idea that a few great powers decide on the security and future of other countries without consulting them,” observes Tsiporah Fried, researcher at the American think tank Hudson Institute. The format itself "makes it clear which countries count and whose interests can be negotiated," she told AFP.
The United States has tried to reassure European leaders about Ukraine. “Washington is leading a completely different aspect” of negotiations with kyiv and Moscow, said an American official speaking on condition of anonymity during a call with the press, according to AFP and the AP agency. The White House representative added that China was "not really part of this part. So it does not seem appropriate to address the issue of Ukraine." It is also not planned that Donald Trump will meet Vladimir Putin one-on-one, unlike Xi Jinping, with whom he will have lunch on Thursday.
Such a statement could reassure kyiv and the West. Especially since after the Russian-Ukrainian talks this week, Washington assured that the Europeans would be included in the next negotiations to end the war. The latter, meeting at a summit in Dublin on Friday, decided to be represented by five countries and representatives of the European Union. “For the first time, there will be concrete peace talks in the coming weeks in which Europeans will be represented,” welcomed German Chancellor Friedrich Merz from Dublin on Friday. “Please, no surprises,” he still asked Donald Trump, reports Reuters.
“Only thunder, no rain”
The agenda for the Shenzhen meeting remains unclear for the moment. There is no shortage of topics for the three leaders. Donald Trump assured that "many things" would be discussed, including denuclearization and the war in Iran, Reuters recalls. “The [American] president has clearly indicated that he will address, among other things, the question of reducing the number of nuclear weapons in the world,” a White House spokesperson declared to the press on Friday evening. Their reunion will certainly result in a historic photo. But concrete results are considered unlikely by experts.
Beyond the symbol, the divergent agendas of each side make the emergence of a new world order in Shenzhen unlikely. Chinese, Americans and Russians “have radically different requirements,” notes Wang Wen, dean of the Chongyang Institute for Financial Studies at Renmin University in Beijing. “It is very likely that the discussions will end without major progress,” he deduces. “Only thunder, no rain,” writes Jonathan Czin, an expert at the Brookings Institute, using a Chinese expression to summarize the situation.
“Instead of engaging constructively, Beijing is using its tactical truce with Washington to strengthen itself domestically and intensify pressure on US allies in the region.”
Jonathan Czin, China specialist
in an article from the Brooking Institute
A Xi-Trump-Putin summit is more likely to result in the establishment of direct lines of communication in the event of a crisis, or in one-off cooperation on issues such as the fight against terrorism or public health, agrees Wang Wen. China opposed the logic of Yalta "from the start", he notes.
A territory will still observe the exchanges carefully. Taiwan, claimed by China and supported by the United States, fears paying the price for arrangements between major players. “If the Trump administration is open to the idea of abandoning one partner [Ukraine] for convenience, it can abandon another,” Wen-Ti Sung, a political scientist at the Australian National University, told AFP.
