France, Ukraine's privileged partner? The Minister of Foreign Affairs, Jean-Noël Barrot, affirmed, Thursday October 15 on France Inter, that "two thirds of the intelligence which is provided to Ukraine is today by the Europeans and particularly by France". In mid-January, Emmanuel Macron provided the same estimate during a visit to the Istres air base (Bouches-du-Rhône), without further details. Once again, Paris wishes to reaffirm its role in a new period of tensions between the American president, Donald Trump, and his Ukrainian counterpart, Volodymyr Zelensky.
The outbursts of the tenant of the White House periodically relaunch the debate on the great Ukrainian dependence on American military intelligence. But what is it in concrete terms? Contacted by franceinfo, the Quai d'Orsay did not specify what precisely these "two thirds" mentioned by the minister corresponded to. By nature, it is "impossible to know the volume of intelligence that the Ukrainians receive", nuance to franceinfo Jonathan Guiffard, researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics. “This figure, if it comes from anywhere, surely comes from the Ukrainians”, as an element of political communication aimed at encouraging European support.
On the other hand, it is entirely “probable that the Europeans have significantly increased their support” since the start of the war, underlines Jonathan Guiffard. “France has the greatest intelligence capabilities on the continent and it is likely that it must transmit a large part of it.” In France, officers from the military intelligence directorate are grouped together on a “plateau” dedicated to the area encompassing Russia and Ukraine, explains the Ministry of the Armed Forces on its website. Their objective is to monitor the situation on the front, analyze the armaments and evaluate “the regeneration of the Russian army by 2030”.
Constellations of French satellites in the sky
For this, they have sovereign equipment unique in Europe, with the exception of the United Kingdom. The three satellites of the Optical Space Component (CSO) constellation provide precise, high-quality images, classified as “defense secret”. The Ministry of the Armed Forces also uses images produced by the Pléiades, a commercial constellation of two satellites deployed by Airbus Defense and Space. Another cutting-edge tool: the Ceres satellite constellation, intended to produce intelligence of electromagnetic origin. It is indeed capable of intercepting communications, detecting the position of enemy units and capturing signals from military radars.
These constellations, among others, provide valuable military intelligence for Ukrainian forces. “There is undoubtedly a prioritization of French capabilities on the Ukrainian subject, with photos very regularly transmitted to the Ukrainians,” underlines Jonathan Guiffard. “But the Ukrainian front is very large. And if you add targets inside Russia, French satellites are not enough to photograph all of these positions every day.” The question of volume is however crucial for the Ukrainian forces.
At the start of the war, the United States set up Task Force Dragon on a US army base in Wiesbaden (Germany), as revealed in 2025 by The New York Times. “It is an intelligence fusion cell, with the military in charge of planning, representatives of American agencies, such as the CIA and the NSA, and Ukrainians in the same place,” explains Jonathan Guiffard. This organization allows “very short targeting cycles” in order to meet the objectives defined by Ukraine. However, it requires “finding new targets almost in real time”, continues Jonathan Guiffard.
But much greater capacities on the American side
The United States has more than 240 military satellites in orbit, far ahead of Chinese (more than 160) or Russian (110) rivals, according to the specialist site Orbital Radar. This gives them “the ability to be permanently on a target, with one satellite taking over from another each time,” explains Jonathan Guiffard. The French CSO constellation produces high quality images when a satellite passes over a site of interest, but it cannot compete in quantity. “The Americans can treat the entire front every day,” with their numerous satellites capable of producing images and heat maps from electromagnetic signatures.
“I doubt that the Ukrainians will be able to do without American capabilities. Unless the Europeans have gone to the next level, with an intelligence fusion cell.”
Jonathan Guiffard, researcher at the French Institute of Geopolitics
at franceinfo
At the end of 2025, Kyrylo Budanov, then director of Ukrainian military intelligence, had already recalled that Ukraine was largely dependent on the United States for space, radar and optical imaging. The United States also has RQ-4 Global Hawk, strategic drones that fly at very high altitude with continuous image capture. These devices are located somewhere “between the satellite and the surveillance drone”, describes Jonathan Guiffard, offering long-term tracking of targets. The American Starlink's Starshield service – a constellation of more than 10,000 satellites – is also essential for Ukrainian military communications.
Ukraine is also very dependent on its partner for the security of its cities. Neither France nor Europe are today in a position to warn kyiv at an early stage of Russian missile strikes. The warnings transmitted to Ukraine are based in part on the American Space-Based Infrared System (Sbirs). This constellation of satellites is capable of detecting heat sources during missile launches and takeoffs of bomber planes. The Ukrainian authorities can then organize anti-aircraft defense and inform the populations.
Other projects underway in Europe, but also in the United States
The American Space Development Agency is currently developing another constellation of satellites intended for missile warning and tracking, which will complement the previous one. “This device, called 'Tracking Layer', uses infrared sensors to detect and track advanced ballistic threats,” Christian Freiherr von der Ropp, an independent consultant specializing in satellites, explains to franceinfo. This concerns “in particular hypersonic weapons whose trajectories, lower and more manageable, undermine traditional warning systems”.
It will be difficult for Paris and its European partners to catch up. “Initiatives such as Odin's Eye II [European Union project] and the Franco-German Jewel program constitute significant progress towards a sovereign missile warning system from space,” notes Christian Freiherr von der Ropp. “But Europe, however, has not yet deployed an equivalent constellation in low Earth orbit dedicated to missile tracking.”
Failures in recent days
Ukraine therefore benefits greatly from American military intelligence, at the risk of exposing it to the political upheavals of the Trump administration. In recent days, kyiv has issued protests after several failures in the transmission of alerts, at the same time as Donald Trump expressed annoyance with his Ukrainian counterpart. The American administration, for its part, cited weather conditions to justify these failures, according to the Politico and CBS media. Already in March, Washington had temporarily suspended intelligence sharing with Ukraine.
“If the Americans cut back, the Ukrainians would remain quite strong on the front, even with fewer satellite photos,” observes Jonathan Guiffard. “On the other hand, they would lose a lot of what they see in Russia,” which would deprive it of deep strikes.
“Ukraine was put on intelligence steroids, which allowed it to survive, ensure its defense and consider deep attacks.”
Jonathan Guiffard
at franceinfo
Ukraine also complained of a slowdown, during the night from Tuesday to Wednesday, of Starlink satellite services, which are provided to it by SpaceX, the company of billionaire Elon Musk, close to Donald Trump. Jonathan Guiffard sees in these recent failures "American negotiation techniques to put pressure on the Ukrainians, which actually works."
Ukraine, “fairly important source of intelligence”
But in reality, “the American national security apparatus is perfectly aware of what this brings them,” underlines Jonathan Guiffard. Ukraine, in fact, also has assets in human intelligence, to know Russia well. “The country conducts cyber operations autonomously, interrogates prisoners of war, recovers Russian equipment… All quite important sources of intelligence.”
