Agirc-Arrco supplementary pensions: an increase between +1.2% and +2% planned for November

After a freeze last year due to lack of agreement, will the supplementary pensions of former private sector employees be increased this fall? Unions and employers – managers of Agirc-Arrco – will evaluate various financial projections on Wednesday, in the hope of reaching an agreement in mid-October on an increase of between +1.2% and +2%. The meeting scheduled for Wednesday evening is officially technical: the Agirc-Arrco services will present to representatives of trade unions and employers' organizations the updated forecasts from INSEE (inflation, evolution of wages, growth, etc.), and various financial projections, to help them decide on the evolution of pensions on November 1.

In fact, these discussions are also “political”, observe participants. At a time when the social partners are trying to relaunch an autonomous social dialogue, independent of the State, they want to avoid reproducing the scenario of last year: in this regime seen as a model of paritarianism, the failure of the negotiations, against a backdrop of tensions around the suspension of the pension reform, had led to the freezing of the supplementary pensions of the 14 million pensioners, and of the "purchase value of the point", on which the regime's revenue depends. “We have ample means” to increase by 2%, assures CGT negotiator Denis Gravouil, recalling that at the same time, the executive wants to freeze part of basic pensions, in a context of major tensions on purchasing power. “We will require a substantial effort,” says Fabien Guimbretière (CFDT). When questioned, Medef only said it was looking for “responsible solutions” to “sustainably preserve the balance” of the accounts.

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90 billion euros in reserves

The rules of the scheme are clear: pensions must normally be slightly under-indexed (by 0.4 points) compared to inflation. But the board of directors can, depending on the health of the plan, raise this rate to inflation, or subtract an additional 0.4 point from it. With inflation estimated at 2% this year, the increase must therefore be between +1.2 and +2%. It must respect the “golden rule”: keep “six months of payments” available in reserve, at any time over the next fifteen years. Reserves today reach 90 billion euros, or 10 months. Two parameters restrict the room for maneuver: the technical result of the regime will be “close to zero” this year; and the increase in pensions cannot “exceed that of salaries”, i.e. “around +1.8%”, observes an internal source at Agirc-Arrco, anticipating an agreement “between 1.4 and 1.8%”. The Agirc-Arrco complementary portion represents between 30% (for low incomes) and 60% (for executives) of the total pension.