Russia accuses NATO of a dangerous policy, warning about the risk of armed conflict

Moscow handed NATO a document in which it accused the Alliance of pursuing a "dangerous and reckless policy." The Russians assessed that the actions of NATO countries pose a "high risk of outbreak of a direct armed conflict."

The note allegedly included a warning that Russia was ready to use "its entire arsenal of forces and capabilities," including nuclear weapons, in response to a possible attempt to isolate the Koenigsberg region. The Russian exclave on the Baltic Sea borders Poland and Lithuania. It is also one of the most militarized areas of the Russian Federation. In Western military analyses, Königsberg is often presented as an area where, in the event of a possible armed conflict, NATO will exert military pressure first.

High-ranking European officials admit that this is the first moment after the end of the Cold War when Russia makes similar threats in such an official form.

Russian embassies in at least three European countries have in recent days accused NATO of escalating tensions through military exercises and preparing scenarios regarding Kaliningrad.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov described these messages as a diplomatic reminder to "hot heads in Europe."

For months, European governments have been accusing Russia of conducting hybrid activities on the continent, such as sabotage and arson. Moscow rejects these accusations, as well as suggestions that it is preparing a possible attack on a NATO country.

One of the NATO diplomats quoted by Reuters said that the Russian letter was an attempt to intimidate Europeans.

Rutte calms down

NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte referred to the Russian message during a defense conference in Brussels.

We are a defense alliance. Stop threatening to use nuclear weapons. “It is absolutely not necessary or helpful,” he said.

In a written response, NATO stressed that no exercises or other activities of the Alliance threaten Russian territory. At the same time, Moscow was called on to end the full-scale invasion of Ukraine and stop its increasingly "reckless" behavior towards allied countries.

When asked about the real risk of using Russian nuclear weapons against the Baltic countries, Rutte replied that he did not see it. He stated that Vladimir Putin knows that he is unable to win the war with NATO.

Putin knows he can never win with NATO, so I don't take it that seriously, Rutte said.

Risk of miscalculation

Nikolai Sokov, a nuclear weapons analyst and former Russian diplomat, told Reuters it was becoming increasingly difficult for the West to increase aid to Ukraine without risking a direct confrontation with Moscow.

What may be considered disturbing is that, in his opinion, the Russian announcement may mean an increase in the influence of supporters of a tough policy towards NATO. Among the activities that Russia may perceive as a threat, he mentioned arms supplies to Kiev, sanctions, interception of Russian ships, military exercises and reconnaissance flights in the Königsberg area.

I see a risk of mutual miscalculation, Sokov said. He added that for European countries, a possible blockade of the Baltic Sea could be an action below the threshold of war, while Moscow could consider it an open conflict.

NATO maneuvers in the Königsberg area

In August, NATO conducted a large-scale air operation along the Alliance's eastern flank. In the space above Poland, the Baltic states and the Skagerrak strait area, among others, early warning aircraft, reconnaissance, patrol and electronic warfare machines. Details of the exercises have not been officially disclosed.

Machines from the USA, Poland, Great Britain, Germany and Norway were to participate in the maneuvers.

The main part of NATO activity was concentrated over northern and north-eastern Poland, near the Russian Königsberg Oblast.

The presence of the EA-37B Compass Call II attracted particular attention. This is a new electronic warfare platform that can disrupt enemy radars and command systems. Airplanes of this type entered service in the USA in 2024. The set of machines used may indicate the exercise of activities including reconnaissance, command, electronic warfare, securing maritime operations and logistic support. However, NATO did not confirm what the purpose of the operation was.

The operation took place during a period of growing tensions between Russia and NATO countries. Former Supreme Commander of Allied forces in Europe, Admiral James Stavridis, previously assessed that Moscow may try to test the readiness and determination of Allied countries through hybrid incidents, cyber activities or sabotage.