Russia is considering scenarios. Among them, direct armed conflict with Poland

The latest findings of Ukrainian intelligence show that Moscow is actively developing various variants of actions against the countries of Central and Eastern Europe. The Kremlin pays special attention to Poland, the Baltic countries and Northern Europe.

Although currently hybrid warfare remains the main tool of Russian policy, an armed conflict cannot be ruled out in the next two decades. According to the SZRU, the Kremlin treats direct confrontation with Europe as one of the realistic options by 2045.

The report indicates that Russia may seek to cause a regional crisis on the eastern flank of the North Atlantic Alliance. The aim of such actions is not to defeat NATO in open combat, but to undermine the alliance's credibility and demonstrate its alleged inability to quickly respond to threats.

Hundreds of Russian agents in Europe

According to information from Ukrainian intelligence, there are currently almost 400 officers of Russian special services operating in European countries. Their tasks include conducting sabotage, cyberattacks and extensive espionage activities. Russian agents systematically test the limits of what is acceptable, trying to avoid a military response from NATO.

These actions are aimed at destabilizing the situation in the region and causing social unrest, which may weaken the unity of the alliance member states.

Russia is preparing for a long confrontation

Ukrainian intelligence emphasizes that the Kremlin is preparing for a long-term confrontation with the West. Therefore, protecting Europe's eastern border and supporting Ukraine are becoming key elements of the strategy to contain Russian expansion.