The vote figures show an even fight for government power – 0.45 percentage points separate the blocs

By 6 o'clock on Monday morning, 99 percent of the election night precincts had been counted. At that time, the mandate position was 176–173 for Magdalena Andersson's government documents against Ulf Kristersson's.

Behind the distribution of mandates hides a very small difference in votes.

After election night in 2022, 0.72 percentage points separated the two government alternatives. This year, the difference is only 0.45 percentage points. That corresponds to 28,600 votes, in favor of the red-greens.

The final election results will only be available later this week. It can be a continued nail biter.

The focus is on the so-called Wednesday votes. On Wednesday, the municipalities' election boards will count the votes that did not make it to the polling stations in time. This includes early votes left in another municipality during the election weekend, as well as postal votes from abroad and votes left at embassies and consulates. If necessary, the count can continue on Thursday.

In the 2022 election, around 251,000 votes were added to this part of the vote count. How many there will be this year - and above all how they will be distributed - cannot yet be known.

But history gives a picture of how the late votes usually differ from the election night results.

The Social Democrats have been systematically disadvantaged by the added votes. On average, the party's share of the vote has decreased by 0.18 percentage points when the late votes are counted. The Moderates and the Green Party tend to strengthen their positions instead.

For the government alternatives, the effect is considerably smaller. The changes for the individual parties largely cancel each other out when their results are summed block wise.

During the four previous elections, the parties that today make up the Tidöparties have strengthened their combined vote share the most by 0.11 percentage points after election night.

To find a bigger shift, you have to go back to the 2006 election. When the late votes were counted, M+KD+L increased its lead by 0.31 percentage points.

That puts this year's tight margin into perspective. Right now, 0.45 percentage points differ between the government alternatives. A shift on par with that in 2006 would eat up most of the red-green lead.

However, history does not say that the late votes usually turn the balance of power between the blocs upside down.

The narrow margin meant that none of the prime ministerial candidates on Sunday evening wanted to claim victory in advance.

- Now we have to wait for the final election results. Every vote that has been cast must be counted, said Magdalena Andersson.

- This election result can lead to a complicated government formation. It may take time but we are in no rush. Right is more important than fast, said Ulf Kristersson.

Behind the even fight for government power, several of the parties appear to be moving towards historic results.

The Social Democrats are at around 28 percent of the vote. If it stands, it will be the party's weakest parliamentary election in over 100 years.

At the same time, the Sweden Democrats are going backwards compared to 2022. In that case, it would be the first time the party goes backwards.

The moderates are at around 20 percent and are the second largest party in the preliminary results, ahead of the Sweden Democrats.

Above all, the Tidö parties seem to have made an unusually strong electoral spurt. In June 2026, there was a difference of almost 10 percentage points in the DN/Ipsos survey, compared to 0.45 on election night.

The Liberals look set to pass the Riksdag barrier by a margin. The party has just over 5 percent of the vote.