The New York Times, citing several anonymous sources familiar with the matter, reported that talks regarding the possible sale of Lukoil's assets have been ongoing between the US and Russia for many months.
According to three of the newspaper's interlocutors, Putin was to present this proposal during a meeting with Witkoff and Kushner in Moscow on September 5. The Russian leader reportedly described the agreement as a goodwill gesture from the United States.
Information about the talks between American envoys and Vladimir Putin regarding the sale of the assets of the Russian company Lukoil is part of the broader policy of the Donald Trump administration towards Russia.
The question arises whether Washington is trying to convince the Russian president to make concessions by offering him specific economic benefits in return. Prof. Małgorzata Zachara-Szymańska, an Americanist from the Jagiellonian University, estimates that if talks about Lukoil are to be an element of such a "carrot" strategy, it is difficult to expect that they will bring a breakthrough.
"If this is part of the carrot strategy, it will not work... again," he says in an interview with RMF FM.
In her opinion, Vladimir Putin consistently pursues his own interests, which remain contrary to the interests of the United States and Western countries.
Łukoil as a piece of a larger puzzle
The case of the Russian company does not only concern a potential business transaction. If part of Lukoil's assets were sold to investors linked to American business, it would also have political significance. Especially since the talks are taking place at a time when Washington is trying to end the war in Ukraine. Therefore, the key question is about the sequence: should Russia's real concessions come first, and only then the economic benefits, or can business interests be part of the negotiation process?
In this context, the experience of the summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin in Alaska also returns. "It was no coincidence that a red carpet was rolled out for Putin during this summit in Alaska," comments Prof. Zachara-Szymańska. In her opinion, the meeting had significance beyond just talking about ending the war. It was also a symbolic recognition of the Russian leader's position in the international arena.
Does Trump look at Russia differently?
According to the Americanist, the Lukoil problem should be considered against the background of a fundamental change in the Trump administration's approach to Russia. "We should get used to the idea that the United States under Donald Trump is not necessarily an adversary of Russia under Putin. This is one of the most important differences between Washington's current policy and the approach of previous administrations," says Prof. Małgorzata Zachara-Szymańska.
Donald Trump wants to end the war in Ukraine, but he does not necessarily look at the conflict primarily through the prism of Russian aggression. "This is a war that is inconvenient for the United States and that President Trump would like to end, but not because Russia is the aggressor here," says the expert. From this perspective, talks about Lukoil may not be an addition to peace negotiations, but rather an element of a broader attempt by Washington to arrange relations with Moscow.
Where does politics end and business begin?
The Lukoil case also raises questions about the relationship between the Trump administration's policies and the interests of people around him. This is particularly important in a situation where potential investors in Russian assets would be entities associated with the American business community. Prof. Zachara-Szymańska believes that in the case of the current administration, situations are increasingly occurring that may raise doubts about the boundary between the interests of the state and the interests of the president and his family.
“What is happening in the United States ruled by Trump is the paramount role of the interests of the president and his family,” says the expert. In her opinion, emerging information about gifts, business contacts and relations with foreign leaders creates a broader picture of the administration in which political and economic interests increasingly intertwine.
Trump before the election. More and more pressure
Foreign policy is not Donald Trump's only problem. The president enters the period preceding the midterm elections with low approval ratings. There is increasing dissatisfaction among voters with economic policy, fuel prices, the involvement of American troops in Iran and migration policy. This last point may be particularly important.
Some voters who previously supported Trump because of his announcements about limiting illegal migration may now assess the effects of this policy differently. As noted by prof. Zachara-Szymańska, the sense of threat also affects some people who already have American citizenship, have built careers and whose children were born in the USA. In her opinion, this may translate into political expectations for a course correction.
Democrats can take back Congress
However, the president's poor approval ratings do not automatically mean the Republicans' defeat. Midterm elections have a strong local dimension. Not only the nationwide mood will be important, but also candidates in individual districts, voter mobilization and local political arrangements. Democrats also have problems. The party remains divided and has no clear leadership. "The Democratic Party is still weak, it is still divided," says the Americanist.
However, if Democrats regain at least the House of Representatives, Donald Trump will have to take into account much greater control of Congress.
What does this mean for Poland?
This is where an issue that is particularly important from the Polish perspective arises - a permanent American military base in Poland. The idea of "Fort Trump" appeared already during Donald Trump's first term. Today the topic comes back again. The problem is that it is not known whether this time the political declarations will be followed by specific decisions and money.
For Poland, the permanent presence of American soldiers would be a significant security reinforcement. Prof. Zachara-Szymańska points out that it would be beneficial to increase the number of American soldiers in Poland to about 15,000 and abandon the rotational model. At the same time, it raises the question of whether the project is actually driven by a long-term strategic need for the United States. "If this step were justified from the point of view of American interests, wouldn't this base already be at an advanced stage of preparations?" – asks the Americanist.
A base in Poland could put pressure on the Kremlin
A permanent American military presence in Poland would be important not only for the security of NATO's eastern flank. It could also be a tool of pressure on Russia.
"It will not be a circumstance, a permanent base of American troops in Poland, that will please Kremlin strategists. And it could be a very effective element of pressure," the expert emphasizes. Therefore, the question about the American base is closely related to the question about Trump's policy towards Putin. If Washington really wants to put pressure on the Kremlin, the permanent presence of American troops in Poland would be one of the clearest signals.
At the same time, Poland should not - according to the Americanist - make its policy towards the US solely dependent on its relations with the president. "The nature of Polish foreign policy should be to conduct talks with all parties on the political scene, not only with the White House," she says. This is particularly important in the event of a possible change in the balance of power in Congress. It is Congress that controls the financing of many activities of the American state, including projects related to foreign policy and security.
