Will the Monetary Policy Council raise interest rates? We know the latest forecasts for those with a loan

A two-day meeting of the Monetary Policy Council begins today.

We assume that rates will remain unchanged at the November MPC meeting. We still see a textbook example of a supply shock - we have higher gas and oil prices, we see it at gas stations, but we do not see general inflationary pressure in the economy - said Adam Antoniak, economist at ING Bank Śląski.

He pointed out that this was confirmed by the latest inflation data. According to the preliminary estimate of the Central Statistical Office, inflation dropped to 3.5 percent in October. with 4.1 percent in September.

Despite the pressure on fuel and energy prices, there is no broader inflationary pressure or pressure on wages. The flash CPI estimate for October suggests that core inflation has also declined. This means that the Monetary Policy Council can wait and observe the situation on the energy market and the impact on prices and economic conditions in Poland - said an ING BSK economist.

If there is no change in interest rates in November, they will probably remain unchanged until the end of the year. The Monetary Policy Council usually does not change interest rates in December.

How much could interest rates rise next year?

In our opinion, if there are any increases at all, it will happen in the first quarter of next year. Then we expect two increases of 25 basis points each. Although we will learn about the inflation prospects from the November inflation projection, it will only be at the beginning of the year that we will know what the regulated prices of gas and electricity will change and how this will affect the inflation path. It will also be known whether there will be any aid program, which has already been suggested by Finance Minister Andrzej Domański - said Adam Antoniak.