Russia-Ukraine, EU negotiator puzzle: still no agreement at the Dublin summit

Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov said yesterday that, as far as he knows, "all parties expressed more or less positive comments following these talks in Abu Dhabi" and that "the trilateral format is the most justified". In the Emirates, in fact, Russia did not want to meet the Europeans, although present in force with the EU, the E4 (France, Germany, United Kingdom and Italy) and NATO to create a consensus around Ukraine. And insist, together with Kiev, that the first step must be a ceasefire, and only then can we talk about Euro-Atlantic security.

For their part, US envoys Jared Kushner and Steve Witkoff asked President Vladimir Putin to give the green light to the expansion of the negotiating table on Ukraine to include European countries, which have so far remained excluded. A choice that came despite Moscow not having so far given the slightest sign of wanting to offer concessions to Kiev, especially on a territorial level. Indeed, the Russian chief negotiator, Vladimir Medinsky, reiterated that the conflict will be concluded only once his country has achieved all the objectives set at the beginning of the so-called "special operation". Kushner for his part called the talks "serious, detailed and frank", although "rather difficult", but admitted that differences remained "significant", although both countries had made unspecified efforts to reduce the gap.

And yesterday the United States also asked Russia to present a new proposal for a security agreement with Europe, which includes measures by Moscow aimed at easing tension on the continent. Moreover, for years Russia has been aiming for a European security agreement that limits the expansion of NATO and reduces its military presence in Eastern Europe. The United States has rejected such requests in the past, but now appears willing to accommodate them to some extent, as part of a broader agreement to end the war in Ukraine. However, many European governments have strong doubts about the US administration's approach.

Meanwhile, within Europe the possible role of the Union is being discussed: on Friday at the informal European Council in Dublin the 27 European leaders will put on the table the issue of who will - possibly - sit at the table with the United States, Ukraine and Russia in the peace negotiations. Giorgia Meloni's letter and that of Friedrich Merz convinced the President of the European Council Antonio Costa that postponing the dossier of the negotiating team and support for Ukraine would have been neither appropriate nor perhaps possible. It is not certain that an agreement will be reached, but it is expected that during the debate the leaders will offer their positions on the issue.

The first day of the Dublin summit, with the summit of the European Political Community, saw growing tension. The issue of the EU envoy splits Europe. France and Germany, for now, do not give up on one concept: to sit at the table we must start from the E3 format and the representatives of the EU institutions. With a reason: it is the United Kingdom, France and Germany who have led, so far, military aid for Kiev and who have already planned boots on the ground in Ukraine after a possible ceasefire. Italy does not agree. And it's not enough that Rome was also present in Abu Dhabi. "There are too many formats, it's not just a question of name but of mandate", is the message brought by Giorgia Meloni to Dublin. Where, in the evening and returning from Moscow, Witkoff and Kushner arrived.

Volodymyr Zelensky then met in Dublin with the Sherpas of the E4 - UK, France, Germany, Italy - and representatives of the Commission and the EU Council. The meeting was followed by a meeting between the Ukrainian president and the two US envoys Steve Witkoff and Jared Kushner, returning from the Moscow summit with Vladimir Putin. The outcome of previous US-Russia talks held in Moscow is discussed.

The discussion is back on the table, already tomorrow at the informal European Council again in Dublin. With Meloni who has no intention of letting go. For the head of the Italian government, the status quo in the format of the EU negotiating team is not acceptable. The voice must be unique, and must represent everyone. "The fact that Italy exists or Italy does not exist in this or that format does not change the opinion on too many formats that talk about this matter", underlines the Prime Minister, with a note: "Non-opposition" to the fact that Costa is the one negotiating, a solution which however is not viable because it excludes non-EU countries, starting with the United Kingdom. On the other hand, the Baltics and Nordics want more space. It is they - this is the prevailing thesis among the northern chancelleries - who have put in more money than the GDP, for Ukraine, staying out of E3 formats extended to others would be unfair.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky underlined that an agreement on the EU envoy is needed "by November". In theory the goal would be within reach, given that at the end of the month the 27 will meet in Brussels for the extraordinary council on the budget, however strong doubts remain about the possibility of actually reaching an agreement. There are many difficulties: the E3 (Great Britain, France, Germany) appear reluctant to give way to the figure of the single negotiator. With the Council and Commission who, from their point of view, still had their emissaries at the negotiating tables.

The negotiator's dossier will be the last in chronological order to be formally addressed in Dublin, but the topic could emerge in the various bilateral meetings that will be held on the sidelines of the summit. One above all: the meeting on Ukraine called by British Prime Minister Andy Burnham and Zelensky himself and in which Meloni will also participate. The message that Italy will bring has been clear for days. "It is urgent that the EU speaks with one voice", Foreign Minister Antonio Tajani reiterated yesterday.