Violence Escalates Behind the Lines in the Russia-Ukraine War: US Restarts Diplomatic Initiatives

In the Russia-Ukraine war, which has been going on for four and a half years, violence behind the front has increased like never before. Russia on one side and Ukraine on the other (and Western countries supporting Ukraine) increased their air strikes to eliminate the other side's logistical capabilities. Intercity transportation has become quite problematic. The Russians used to launch air strikes on Kiev at night. Now there is no time when the weather alarms do not go off. In Kiev, sirens sound an average of fifteen times a day, while shopping malls and entertainment venues are closed and life is largely paralyzed. There is no doubt that if the air strike continues at this intensity for a few more months, it will drive many stores in Kiev into bankruptcy and cause unemployment to increase even more.

TRUMP IS IN ACTION AGAIN

In this environment where mutual attacks increased, the USA took the Ukraine issue again: The delegation led by US President Trump's special representatives Steve Witkoff and Jareed Kushner visited first Moscow and then Kiev. The US administration has resumed its attempts to end the Ukraine war, which it had paused since the start of the Iran war. It seems that Trump is trying to show his own public a foreign policy success before the parliamentary midterm elections to be held in the USA in November.

As we may remember, when Trump started his second presidential term, he promised to end the Ukraine war in 24 hours, but his attempt to reach an agreement with Russia was not very successful due to Russia's attitude, the attempts of anti-Russian states such as the UK and the Democrats in the USA.

Although the details of the talks in Moscow and Kiev have not yet been clarified, it seems that the Americans also brought up the Iran issue during the talks in Moscow. From here we can conclude that the USA offered Russia more than Ukraine in return for it to stop supporting Iran. After all, from the very beginning, the Trump administration was advocating to somehow end the Ukraine war issue and focus on other parts of the world.

During the talks in Kiev, US and Ukrainian delegations were joined by British, French and German officials. Therefore, it became clearer that Zelenski did not oppose Trump's attitude alone, and that countries such as the UK were behind him.

EXPECTATIONS ARE DIFFERENT

So, if the negotiation process begins, will the war end soon? Neither side of the conflict says "Yes" to this question. Almost everyone says that even if negotiations begin soon, cessation of fire (not a peace agreement, just cessation of fire) is not possible before spring. Because the expectations of the parties are very different from each other. Moreover, neither European countries nor the Democrats in the USA will allow Trump to reach an agreement with Putin. Russians also say that if the Democrats win the midterm elections in November, Trump will not be able to maintain his conciliatory attitude towards Russia and will have to adapt to the Democrats' attitude. The most frightening scenario for Russians is that the Democrats will win the 2028 elections in the USA, thus finding a united Western alliance against Russia again. For this reason, Russia will do its best to get results from the Ukrainian war within the next year.

Therefore, we are going through a complex period in which the end of the war cannot yet be seen.