In public opinion polls conducted before the elections to be held on September 6 in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is clearly ahead with over 40 percent of the votes. In the polls, the AfD ranks first in the 40-43 percent band, while the Christian Democratic Union Party (CDU), led by German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, ranks second in the 22-23 percent band.
The vote rate of the government's junior partner, the Social Democratic Party (SPD), is in the 7-9 percent range, and the Greens' is in the 5-6 percent range.
All eyes will be on the elections to be held on September 6, as the AfD has the possibility of gaining an absolute majority in the parliament with the vote rate it will receive in this state and coming to power in a state in Germany for the first time.
Journalist and writer Jana Hensel and political scientist and sociologist Steffen Mau made statements to the AA correspondent about AfD's high vote share in the eastern states of the country before the elections to be held in Saxony-Anhalt and the possible effects of the election results on the country's politics.
Hensel stated that there are many reasons why the AfD received high votes in the eastern states, and that although 36 years have passed since the reunification of Germany, the eastern states have not reached the prosperity level of the western states of the country.
Emphasizing that there are "huge economic and social differences", Hensel also stated that domestic policy discussions were conducted from the West German perspective.
Hensel said many of those living in eastern Germany "live on the outskirts of the country" and feel "unseen."
Stating that Saxony-Anhalt is a small state, but the elections to be held here will have great effects, Hensel argued that the AfD became even stronger during Merz's term as prime minister.
Hensel said, "AfD got out of control during the Friedrich Merz period. AfD, which received around 20 percent of the votes in eastern Germany for a long time, reached 40 percent in the polls today." he said.
Stating that this rise started in the last months of the previous government's term, Hensel said, "This party recorded a huge increase during Friedrich Merz's term of office. Friedrich Merz is largely responsible for AfD's high support." he said.
Stating that he will not say what may happen in Berlin in the future, Hensel said, "I do not think that the government will fall. However, there is at least a question mark as to whether Friedrich Merz will continue his duty as the Chancellor of Germany." made his assessment.
"AfD is a great danger to democracy"
Hensel noted that this election was a vote on the policies of the federal government and the reforms of Friedrich Merz.
Stating that AfD is an extremely radical organization in the state of Saxony-Anhalt, Hensel said, "AfD is a great danger to democracy." he said.
Hensel pointed to the AfD's election program in Saxony-Anhalt, explaining that it was requested to harden the immigration policy and draw the cultural and education policy to ideological lines, and said that this was a political program that was very dangerous and envisaged radical changes.
Warning that the social climate in the country will harden if the AfD comes to power, Hensel said, "Racism and anti-immigrant rhetoric will start coming from a state government, that is, the state prime minister. This will greatly harden the social atmosphere." he said.
To the question of whether the foreign policy of the German government had an impact on the increase in AfD's votes, Hensel said, "AfD does not benefit so much from anything other than Russia's war of aggression against Ukraine." he replied.
Political scientist and sociologist Mau also stated that the elections in Saxony-Anhalt are important and said, "They will also have effects on the federal government in Berlin. They will put Prime Minister Merz under great pressure." he said.
Mau noted that there could be a radical change in Germany if the AfD forms the government in this state.
Answering a question about why AfD received high votes in the east of the country, Mau said, "While the population is generally decreasing, immigration is increasing. Therefore, shrinking societies are often afraid of immigration and new immigrants. This is a situation we can observe not only there (in Saxony-Anhalt) but also in other parts of the east of the country." he replied.
Political scientist Dr. Benjamin Höhne also stated that the possibility of AfD taking over government responsibility in the state of Saxony-Anhalt has caused concern in the public, and stated that AfD has been ahead in public opinion polls in Saxony-Anhalt for a long time.
Pointing out that the AfD was seen to increase its votes in this state and in general in the east of Germany in the last Bundestag and European Parliament elections, Höhne noted that the AfD hopes to gain a majority in the Saxony-Anhalt state parliament.
Höhne stated that, however, in recent polls, it has been seen that small parties such as the Greens can probably take part in the parliament and that the AfD's vote rate has decreased slightly, so the possibility of the scenario that the AfD can form the government on its own has decreased somewhat for now.
Höhne stated that, although it seems unlikely at the moment, if the AfD takes part in the state government, not only the people in the state of Saxony-Anhalt but the country in general may be affected, adding: "This will also have effects on democracy in general." he said.
Pointing out that the states in Germany participate in the government's legislative process through the Federal States' House of Representatives (Bundesrat), Höhne warned that AfD ministers would probably stay away from Germany's consensus-based decision-making methods, thus making governance at the federal level somewhat difficult.
