Sánchez advances elections to November 29 due to a drop in polls and housing crisis

The social outbreak due to the housing crisis and the Government's inability to respond, not having a sufficient parliamentary majority, have led Pedro Sánchez to bring forward the elections, which will be held on November 29. To make this decision, the president took this weekend to reflect and take the pulse of the Spanish people. The street is one of the thermometers that have served him, after a few days in which tens of thousands of people have demonstrated throughout the country in defense of the right to housing. And the demographic analysis is, at this time, the other indicator to which all parties will be very attentive in the coming weeks. The latest survey by Sigma Dos for EL MUNDO, carried out between September 22 and October 1 - just before the electoral buzz began to take hold - does not, however, paint the most favorable scenario for Sánchez: the PSOE begins its path to the polls today with minimal support and deputies, and with the right consolidated above the barrier of 200 seats.

There are still 54 days left for Spaniards to be called to the polls but, if the elections were held today, the socialists would gather 25.6% of the ballots, 6.1 points less than in the July 2023 elections. This means that, if the same number of people voted, 6.3 million Spaniards would bet on the list headed by Sánchez, which would thus leave 1.5 million voters compared to those who elected him ago. three years. The president is dragging on the setback that his party suffered at the beginning of summer, after the indictment of José Luis Rodríguez Zapatero and the information about the alleged Ferraz sewers, and also the discontent caused by his management of the crisis in Ceuta. This plummeted a month ago to its worst record of the legislature, which today only improves by two tenths. In the transfer to seats in Congress, the outlook is no less gray: the PSOE gains two deputies compared to the previous poll, but would obtain 103 seats in the Lower House, 18 less than what it currently seats.

The scenario that Sánchez faces is not much more favorable if the situation is analyzed by bloc: with those who made him president, today he would be 35 seats away from the absolute majority. The PP, with 32.6% of the ballots, and Vox, with 18.3%, would gather the support of more than half of Spaniards (50.9%). This summer, the two national right-wing parties have consolidated themselves above that barrier, and with this they have also crossed another symbolic figure in terms of seats: two hundred. Alberto Núñez Feijóo and Santiago Abascal would add 203 seats in Congress, well above the 176 that mark the absolute majority - and therefore, allow the formation of a government. Despite the fact that in the last month the PP has lost half a point in percentage of the vote and three seats - it would obtain 140, three more than it has, although with less citizen support than in 2023 -, a Vox that is chaining its fifth poll on the rise almost compensates for the fall - the sum of the right only leaves one seat compared to the previous barometer. Abascal would seat 63 leaders in Congress, 30 more than in 2023.

The conservatives, driven by Vox, are now moving at their maximum because they absorb, to a large extent, what the PSOE leaves behind. 4.7% of those who elected Sánchez three years ago would bet on Abascal today -367,620 people-, more than ever, while zero voters fled from Vox to the PSOE. The PP also takes 8% of its voters from the Socialists, although it gives them 1.4%: the net balance in favor of the Popular Party is more than half a million people.

That 42.9% of those who leave the PSOE do so alleging "dissatisfaction with the management in the Government" - more than ever - could explain why only 3.3% of them opt for the other party in the coalition Executive, Sumar. The alternative left, with Podemos today split, not only does it not absorb what Sánchez would leave behind with respect to 2023, but it contributes to the collapse of the bloc. Sumar, without defined leadership, would now gather 6.6% of the ballots, remaining like last month, without taking advantage of the mobilizations for housing. Yes, the purple ones do, rising five tenths to 3.3%, bringing together 9.9% of the votes, 2.4 points from their joint mark three years ago (12.3%). In seats, the loss multiplies: of the 31 seats they occupy today, only 11 would be revalidated - nine Sumar, one less than last month, and two Podemos, which regained one in the last 30 days. With this, the sum of the national left is close to the minimum it achieved in the previous survey: it would now gather 35.5% of the ballots, when in 2023 it was 44%, and 114 seats, 38 less than what it has.

In this way, Sánchez would not have the bills to revalidate the Government today. And they would not succeed despite the fact that those who could be their partners do manage to maintain themselves, and even grow, compared to three years ago: ERC, PNV and BNG each sign up for one more seat, Adelante Andalucía emerges with two and Bildu and the Canary Coalition retain their representation. Only Junts loses with the advancement of the legislature - it leaves three seats, which would go to Aliança Catalana, despite the fact that it does not intend to run in the general elections -, even though the survey does not measure the effect of its no to the repealed housing decrees.