Saudi Arabia braces for above-average rainfall, warmer weather through January 2027

Saudi Arabia is expected to experience above-average rainfall, potentially reaching extremely heavy levels in some regions, between November 2026 and January 2027, while temperatures are forecast to remain higher than normal across the Kingdom, according to the National Centre for Meteorology (NCM).

The NCM's seasonal climate outlook indicates that rainfall could range from moderate to extremely heavy in several regions, particularly during November, while average surface temperatures are expected to exceed seasonal norms throughout the three-month period.

November: Heavy to extremely heavy rainfall

The centre said November could bring above-average rainfall to the Northern Borders region and parts of Qassim, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Mecca.

Rainfall in these areas is projected to range from heavy to very heavy, potentially reaching extremely heavy levels, based on the forecast deviation from normal climatic averages.

Parts of Tabuk, Al Jouf, Hail, Al Baha, Asir and Najran are also expected to receive above-average rainfall, with amounts classified as moderate to heavy and potentially very heavy.

December: Rainfall shifts towards southern regions

Above-average rainfall is forecast to continue in December across Jazan, Asir, Al Baha and Najran, as well as parts of Mecca, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Northern Borders.

Rainfall is expected to range from moderate to heavy compared with normal climatic conditions.

January: Wet conditions expected to persist

In January 2027, the NCM forecasts above-average rainfall across Jazan, Al Baha, Asir, Mecca, Najran, Riyadh, the Eastern Province and Qassim, along with parts of Medina and Northern Borders.

Rainfall is expected to range from moderate to heavy, according to the projected deviation from seasonal averages.

Temperatures up to 2°C above normal

The NCM also forecasts higher-than-average surface temperatures across all regions of Saudi Arabia during the three months.

The largest increase could reach approximately 2°C above normal in parts of Asir, Najran and Riyadh.

The centre explained that the rainfall and temperature classifications reflect expected deviations from long-term climatic averages, indicating how much conditions may differ from typical seasonal patterns.