Black-red in crisis: Survey: majority expects the coalition to end prematurely

Disputes over reforms, the budget and how to deal with the Left and the AfD are weighing heavily on the coalition. Voters' confidence in the continued existence of the alliance is dwindling.

The Union and SPD are suffering losses in the state elections. (Archive image) Photo: Michael Kappeler/dpa

Berlin. According to a survey by the opinion research institute YouGov, only just under one in four Germans still believes that the coalition between the Union and the SPD will remain in place until the next federal election in early 2029. In the survey of 2,202 eligible voters commissioned by the German Press Agency, 23 percent were convinced that the alliance led by Chancellor Friedrich Merz (CDU) would remain in place for the full legislative period.

On the other hand, 13 percent believe that the coalition will collapse this year. 44 percent of those surveyed expect it to be ended early in the following two years. 20 percent did not provide any information.

53 percent of Union voters expect an early exit

Confidence in the cohesion of the government is also dwindling among voters of the coalition parties. Of the Union supporters, 53 percent expect a premature break, compared to 32 percent who expect the coalition to last until 2029. Among SPD voters it is 46 to 34 percent.

Hoppermann: Coalition lasts until 2029

CDU General Secretary Franziska Hoppermann, however, does not expect a premature break between the black and red parties. In the Munich “Abendzeitung” she answered the question of whether the coalition would last until 2029 in the affirmative and emphasized: “Everyone is aware of their responsibility.” There have been no major welfare state reforms for 20 years. The budget situation is tense and the security policy situation is difficult. However, it is positive that the economic forecast has been raised. “What we do has an impact,” emphasized the CDU politician.

The coalition has been in crisis since the state elections in September with dramatic losses for the Union and SPD and significant gains for the AfD. Differences in the reform package and in dealings with the Left and the AfD are causing serious problems for the alliance.