Sébastien Lecornu warns against the economic “real” before the presentation of the budget

Unprecedented debt, record interest rates, energy tensions and now a rebound in inflation and a drop in consumption: “reality is catching up with us,” Sébastien Lecornu warned on Wednesday before the presentation of the budget to the Council of Ministers on Thursday. An observation which sounds like a warning to the political opposition: while the copy of the budget will be debated in Parliament in the coming weeks, the Prime Minister calls on the various parties not to add “instability to these difficulties”.

On Tuesday, “France borrowed at nearly 4.8% at 10 years, compared to 3.5% a year ago. We have to go back to 2008 (year of financial crisis, editor’s note) to find such a level,” writes the Prime Minister. “Energy tensions are pushing rates up in many countries” and “in France, political uncertainty in the run-up to the presidential election is adding to this pressure,” he underlines. “Let's not add instability to these difficulties,” adds Sébastien Lecornu, who also faces degraded public finances, with a deficit which has slipped in 2026 to 5.4% instead of the 5% hoped for, and a public debt which is increasing and promises to be record in 2027.

A 10-year interest rate never seen since 2008

The 10-year interest rates at which France refinances its debt on the markets exceeded the threshold of 4.8% on Tuesday, for the first time since 2008. The gap with its German equivalent, a benchmark in Europe, continues to climb, approaching 1.20 percentage points, unheard of since 2012. “More interest to pay means less resources for the country's priorities,” warns the head of government, and “this reality imposes itself on everyone”, including candidates for the presidential election, affirms Sébastien Lecornu. The head of government recalls that he will present on Thursday "a recovery budget" the broad outlines of which he had outlined in mid-September, displaying an "effort" of 54 billion euros. And that it will remain “available to everyone to construct the necessary compromises and achieve” its adoption.

A proper vote seems almost impossible on the budget in the run-up to the presidential election, which risks polarizing the debates even more. And the government does not want, in the event of an impasse, a special law to temporarily renew the 2026 credits, which according to it would further increase the deficit. What remains for the adoption of the budget is article 49.3 of the Constitution, which involves finding a compromise text that the Socialist Party or the National Rally does not censor, or the ordinances, a device never used until now.