Six months of the US-Israel war on Iran: Costs, failures, and political fallout

Six months ago, the United States and Israel struck targets across Tehran, killing Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and other Iranian leaders.

It fulfilled a long-held ambition of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu for a joint attack with the US on Iran, with Washington now locked in a war from which it is unable to extricate itself.

The US’s stated war aims also appear not to have been achieved, with President Donald Trump’s initial claim that Iran’s nuclear capacity had been destroyed now appearing false.

Netanyahu might have hoped that the fall of the government in Tehran would be part of his election campaign. And in Iran, the consequences of six months of war have done little to reverse the struggling economy, which appears to be the government’s Achilles heel.

United States

The cost-of-living crisis was the mainstay of Trump’s criticisms of the previous administration of Joe Biden during the 2024 US election, but petrol prices alone have risen by 50 percent since the war on Iran began on February 28.

Trump’s repeated empty claims that a deal with Iran to reopen the Strait of Hormuz is imminent appear to be doing little to help his struggling Republican Party ahead of midterm elections due to take place in November.

Numerous surveys show Trump’s approval rating is at a record low, with criticism of his foreign policy competing with disapproval of his domestic record.

“The economic cost of the war is becoming a key issue for many,” Shibley Telhami, government and politics professor at the University of Maryland, told Al Jazeera.

Adding to the pressure on Trump are reports that he entered the unpopular war on Iran at the behest of Netanyahu, with fewer than one in three Americans supportive of the conflict, according to a recent Ipsos poll.

“There was a perception, certainly among Democrats but initially young Republicans, that this was a war that Israel had dragged the US into,” Telhami said. “The issue of Israel has risen in public priorities, as it is now not just a foreign policy issue but also a pocketbook and core values issue.”

A in a bid to pile pressure on the Iranian government to agree to a deal that is more favourable to the US, Trump imposed new sanctions on Tehran last week, which he dubbed “Economic D-Day”.

Still, despite the costly effects of the war and sanctions on the Iranian economy and the destruction to its military, American author and diplomat Aaron David Miller pointed out that the government in Tehran has survived.

“The highly enriched uranium is still in the country and could still be enriched. Iran has also weaponised geography, in that it’s essentially closed off the Strait,” he told Al Jazeera.

“Likewise, their proxies in Hamas and Hezbollah, while much reduced, are still in place and still have capacity. The public unrest or internal dissent the US had hoped for hasn’t arisen. In terms of Iranian deterrence, it’s been a huge success for Tehran.”

The failure of Trump and Netanyahu’s military endeavour in Iran could have long-term effects on US foreign policy.

“No future administration is likely going to consider such a military campaign again,” said Miller.

Israel

Ahron Bregman, an Israeli security analyst and senior teaching fellow at King’s College London, said Netanyahu is viewed as having failed in Gaza, Lebanon and now in Iran. For Netanyahu, the war in Iran is perceived by many Israelis as a major security error.

“Netanyahu is trailing in the polls and for good reason,” Bregman said. “Instead of concentrating on stopping Iran from getting the bomb, he focused on – and convinced Trump to join him – regime change. It all failed, and Iran is now closer than ever to having the bomb.”

The US decision to sign a memorandum of understanding with Iran, without Israel’s involvement in June, provided Netanyahu’s political opponents with multiple reasons to attack the prime minister.

“I think Netanyahu was hoping this would be the electoral game-changer,” former Israeli government adviser Daniel Levy told Al Jazeera. “The war hasn’t gone as planned, so it hasn’t given him that momentum. If anything, it joins the list of things where he’s overpromised and underdelivered, given how much was expected of it as a decisive moment.”

The view that Iran still poses a fundamental threat to Israel, and the war has done nothing to minimise this, is a widely held belief among Israelis.

“I think [Netanyahu is] in favour of the economic ‘D-Day’ measures, not because he believes they’ll be decisive or that Iran will capitulate in talks, but because he’s hoping they’ll drive Trump’s frustration and put re-escalation back on the agenda, and that this time, things will look different,” Levy added.

Iran

Despite the Iranian government remaining in place, the sanctions and the US siege on Iranian ports do appear to be affecting the Iranian economy.

By Iran’s own reckoning, the war had already cost the economy upwards of $145bn by April, with annual inflation hitting 66 percent just last month. Taken in isolation, the US blockade could be inflicting $435m a day on the country. But the economy is still proving resilient to these challenges.

“I don’t want to downplay the effects of a crippled economy and of inflation, but my sense is that these pains remain manageable,” Shervin Malekzade, an academic and author on Iran, told Al Jazeera.

Iran’s entire political and military system was rooted in “the timeless task of preserving Iranian sovereignty and dignity against the world”, he added, helping it manage any economic challenges.

But there are still differences on economic issues within the Iranian government and a public rift between hardliners and moderates on the future of talks with the US.

Irrespective of the domestic political challenges thrown up by the war, none of the belligerents can concede defeat.

For Iran, the standoff with the US and Israel has gone beyond establishing deterrence and is a matter of survival.

Trump’s failure to deliver a short and decisive victory against Iran, and the economic and political costs of the war, will likely affect Republicans’ performance in the upcoming midterms.

For Israel, Iran remains no less of a perceived profound and existential threat than it did on February 27.