'Cold spot' raises an alarm! How will it affect rainfall? Critical Marmara and Black Sea warning from experts

The winters that Europe is accustomed to are facing an unexpected change. The silent activity in the depths of the Atlantic began to increasingly attract the attention of scientists.

It is stated that this change, which is not easy to notice in daily life for now, could seriously affect the temperature and precipitation patterns of Europe if things go wrong. Moreover, one of the signs that experts follow is an unusual region that appears in the middle of the ocean.

So what's happening in the Atlantic and why is Europe's weather of such close interest? How will it affect the winter in Turkey?

'COLD SPOT' INCREASES ANXIETY

At the center of the debate in the scientific world is a large region located in the south of Greenland and around Iceland, which is noticeably colder than the surrounding waters. This area, called the 'cold spot', has recently been closely monitored for the future of the large ocean circulation in the Atlantic.

A study published this year also revealed new findings that this cold region may be linked to a weaker ocean circulation. The region in question is particularly notable because one part of the Atlantic is behaving differently while temperatures are rising in much of the rest of the world.

GIANT SYSTEM AFFECTING EUROPE'S CLIMATE

The Atlantic Meridian Circulation, or AMOC, works like a giant heat transport system across the Atlantic Ocean. While warming seawater in tropical regions moves northward, cooled and concentrated water in the North Atlantic moves deeper.

This giant circulatory system plays an important role in Europe's climate. Especially in the relatively mild conditions of Northern Europe, the heat carried from the Atlantic has a significant impact. According to the Met Office, climate models show that the AMOC is very likely to weaken over the 21st century due to the impact of global warming.

The question is how weak this system will become and whether it will exceed a critical threshold in the future. Because the warming of the oceans, increased precipitation and melting of glaciers carry more fresh water to the Atlantic. This can change the density of the water in the North Atlantic, making it harder for it to sink to the depths. Thus, it becomes possible for the giant circulatory system to slow down.

'ICE AGE WINTERS' WARNING FOR EUROPE

If the AMOC slows down significantly, not only temperatures are expected to change in Europe. Precipitation patterns, storms, sea level and seasonal weather conditions may also be affected.

Significant changes in winter temperatures may occur, especially in Northern and Western Europe. During the summer months, it is possible for rainfall patterns to deteriorate and the risk of drought to increase in some regions. However, there is an important detail here: Scientists distinguish between the weakening of the AMOC and the 'ice age' scenario that will suddenly freeze Europe.

THE REAL RISK FOR Türkiye IS NOT COOLING, THE DANGER IS DIFFERENT

Kırşehir Ahi Evran University Geography Department Lecturer Assoc. Dr. Doğukan Doğu Yavaşlı stated that the region called 'cold spot' seen in the south of Greenland in the Atlantic Ocean is an important indicator compatible with the weakening of the Atlantic Meridional Overturning Circulation (AMOC).

However, Yavaşlı emphasized that this situation alone does not prove that the ocean circulation has collapsed, and stated that the real risk for Türkiye will be changing atmospheric circulation, irregularities in the precipitation regime and drought pressure, rather than freezing winters.

Stating that changes in the heat carried by the ocean play an important role in the emergence of the cold spot, Yavaşlı said, "While most of the world and the oceans are warming, it is remarkable that this place behaves contrary to this in the long-term records. One of the most reasonable explanations for this is the decrease in the heat carried by the AMOC to the north. Studies conducted in recent years show that this cold region cannot be explained only by temporary weather conditions in the atmosphere, and that changes in the heat carried by the ocean play an important role. Therefore, the cold spot is considered an important 'fingerprint' compatible with the weakening of the AMOC." he said.

THE FREEZING WINTER SCENARIO IS NOT TRUE FOR Türkiye BUT…

Assoc. Prof. stated that assessments that a significant weakening of AMOC would reverse global warming in Turkey may be misleading. Dr. Doğukan Doğu Yavaşlı stated that the climate changes expected in Europe will not be reflected in Turkey in the same way.

Yavaşlı emphasized that the heat transport effect of the Atlantic will decrease as you move away from the ocean, and pointed out that the south and east of Europe continue to warm in many climate models.

Yavaşlı stated that the assessment of risks for Türkiye should not only focus on average temperatures and said:

"First, it is necessary to correct a common misunderstanding. The weakening of the AMOC does not mean a reversal of warming for Turkey. The freezing winter scenarios in the news mainly concern England, Scandinavia and Northwest Europe. The direct warming effect of the ocean circulation decreases as we move away from the Atlantic. In many climate models that weaken the AMOC, the south and east of Europe continue to warm; only the warming progresses a little slower. The real risk for Turkey lies in the change in atmospheric circulation rather than the temperature average."

COLD WEATHER ATTACKS MAY BE EFFECTIVE IN MARMARA AND THE BLACK SEA

Assoc. Prof. stated that one of the possible effects of the weakening of the AMOC on Turkey may arise through changes in atmospheric circulation during the winter months. Dr. Doğukan Doğu Yavaşlı noted that the changes in the North Atlantic Oscillation and the jet stream and the Atlantic storm belt are important.

Yavaşlı stated that in a study published in the journal Climate Dynamics in 2025, it was stated that the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is seen more frequently in models where the AMOC weakens more and that the Atlantic storm belt and jet stream also strengthen in these models.

Stating that Turkey is in a position where different effects of this atmospheric system can be seen, Yavaşlı said that cold air inputs coming from the Balkans and Eastern Europe, especially in the Marmara and Black Sea regions, may gain importance:

"In models that further weaken the AMOC, it is seen that the positive phase of the North Atlantic Oscillation in winter is becoming more frequent, and the Atlantic storm belt and jet stream are also strengthening. Turkey is at the opposite end of this oscillation. In terms of winters, this may mean that despite the current global warming, the possibility of stronger cold air attacks, larger daily temperature fluctuations and harsh winter events in some years may increase. Cold air inputs coming from the Balkans and Eastern Europe, especially in the Marmara and Black Sea, may gain importance. However, from here the winter averages are certain." "It is not correct to conclude that it will be colder than today. The effect of the AMOC and the warming caused by greenhouse gases will work in opposite directions; the net result will depend on how much the AMOC weakens."

“RAINFALL AND DROUGHT ISSUE IS MORE CRITICAL FOR Türkiye”

Assoc. Prof. emphasized that the precipitation regime and drought risk may be more critical than temperature changes when evaluating the possible consequences of AMOC weakening for Türkiye. Dr. Doğukan Doğu Yavaşlı pointed out that especially the Mediterranean environment is under aridification pressure due to climate change.

Stating that there are studies showing that precipitation across Europe may decrease and the risk of drought may increase in scenarios where the AMOC weakens or collapses very strongly, Yavaşlı noted that Turkey should be closely monitored for the effects of these developments and shared the following information:

"I see the issue of precipitation and drought as more critical than temperature for Turkey. Recent studies show that precipitation may decrease and the risk of drought may increase across Europe in scenarios where the AMOC weakens or collapses very strongly. The Mediterranean environment in particular is one of the most sensitive areas as it is already under the pressure of climate change to become arid. For Turkey, when, how often and how much precipitation falls are of great importance. Therefore, looking only at temperature averages is not enough to understand all climate risks."

SEA LEVEL IS ALSO PART OF THE PICTURE

Major changes in the AMOC don't just affect temperature and precipitation patterns in the atmosphere. There may also be significant consequences for sea levels. According to a study published this year by the Royal Netherlands Meteorological Institute, in a scenario of a complete stop of the AMOC, sea level rise along the Dutch coast could put additional pressure on existing climate change.

The study reveals that in such a situation, the rate of sea level rise in the North Sea could increase significantly.

Therefore, the AMOC issue is not just about “Will Europe get colder?” It's not just a question. Coastal cities, agricultural areas, energy systems and infrastructure are among the areas that may be affected by possible changes.