TMG survey: growing support in the United Kingdom for rapprochement with the European Union

TMG interviewed 11,461 people, with a sample weighted according to the result of the referendum, between 12 and 24 September, presenting respondents with seven different options for the relationship with the EU. The most popular is re-entry into the Union: 49% are in favor and 28.5% are against. Immediately afterwards, voters would choose the current relationship, but with a reduction in trade barriers: an option supported by 48.2%, against 20.9% against. The customs union instead sees 47.1% in favor and 20.7% against. Joining the single market and joining as an equal associate member: 45.1% and 45.5% of those interviewed are in favour, respectively. 42% instead support maintaining the current relationship with the EU. The seventh option – moving the UK further away from the EU – is supported by only 27.9%, while 41.2% are against. A plurality of voters — 25.9% — said they wanted the United Kingdom to rejoin the EU immediately; a slightly lower percentage, 22.9%, would like this to happen in the next three years, while 8.4% over the next decade. 23%, on the other hand, said they did not want a closer relationship with the EU at all.

The poll showed that more than two-thirds of voters believe trade relationships with the EU are more important than those with the US or China, should the UK be forced to choose. However, the study also found that Brexit arguments about immigration control and sovereignty continue to have traction with public opinion. TMG research found that 29.7% of respondents think the UK was right to leave the EU, while 52.4% think it was bad and 17.9% don't know. When asked whether Brexit was a success or a failure, 12.2% answered "success", 54.9% "failure", 23.2% "neither one nor the other" and 9.7% could not answer.

A government minister told The Guardian: "It's clear that Brexit hasn't worked and that the promises made haven't been kept, so Andy is right to reopen the question of what the future relationship should look like. But he absolutely must proceed with caution, because we don't want to reignite divisions."

A second minister said: "Andy is right that we need clarity on our long-term relationship. Cooperation on security and trade is more important today than it was ten years ago. But I don't know whether this translates into a real desire for radical change among the population. My constituents will be cautious."

A third added: "It's clear that there are different opinions within the government, but the 'Made in Europe' agenda means we need to talk to the EU about the kind of relationship it wants to have with us in the long term, because what it is currently proposing is very challenging."

Another government source said: “Among several ministers representing constituencies that had voted to leave the EU there is an awareness that opinions will be different and that arguments about the future will have to be presented carefully, putting the national interest at the centre.”

A fifth source said there are real questions about which is the best of the options on the table. "I'm skeptical, if we were to return, about the terms under which we would do so and whether this could really solve people's problems. But if you look at the global context, you can't start solving people's problems without having a closer relationship with the EU."