Youtrend poll for Sky TG24: Schlein leads the center-left primaries, the center-right opens to Vannacci

CENTER-LEFT PRIMARY, SCHLEIN IN THE LEAD

Elly Schlein is in the lead as a possible prime minister candidate for the center-left, followed by Giuseppe Conte and the mayor of Genoa Silvia Salis, both assuming a scenario of high turnout and low turnout in the primaries. In the first case, the Dem leader would take home around 31% of the votes, Conte 27% and Salis 17%. This is what emerges from the latest Youtrend survey for Sky TG24. Counting the voters of the Pd, Avs, M5s and the centrist area, the share of voters on the total base is 61%.

SCHLEIN IN THE LEAD EVEN IN THE CASE OF LOW TURNOUT

The result of the primaries will depend above all on turnout. In the low turnout scenario, Schlein is at 38.6%, Conte at 22.3% and Salis at 20.7%. The share of voters drops in this case to 34%.

HOW TO CHOOSE THE WIDE COURT CANDIDATE

Among the voters of the Pd, Avs, Five Star Movement and the centrist area, 41% would like the prime minister candidate to be the leader of the party most voted for in politics, 26% would prefer primaries and 25% would prefer an agreement between the leaders. 8% do not express themselves.

THE PERIMETER OF THE CENTRE-LEFT: THE PARTIES THAT WOULD ENTER THE COALITION

According to voters of the Pd, Avs, M5s and the centrist area, the parties that should be part of the center-left coalition are, in order, the Pd (78%), Avs (71%), M5s (67%) and +Europa (57%).

THE PARTIES UNDER THE MAJORITY

Italia Viva (39%), the Liberal Democratic Party (36%), Action (30%) and Ora! remain in the majority. (25%).

DIFFERENCES IN THE ELECTORATE

Pd voters are the most inclusive when it comes to choosing which other parties they would like in a coalition: 70% for the M5s, 75% for Avs, 68% for +Europa, although stopping at 45% for Italia Viva and 37% for Azione. Among M5s voters only 32% want Italia Viva and 18% Azione, and among those AVS just 11% want Italia Viva. Conversely, among centrist voters only 34% would like the M5s in coalition.

NATIONAL FUTURE IN THE CENTER-RIGHT COALITION

Changing political areas, among centre-right and Futuro Nazionale voters, 51% are in favor of Vannacci's party entering the coalition with FdI, FI, Lega and Noi Moderati. 31% are against and 18% do not express their opinion.

WHO IS IN FAVOR OF VANNACCI IN THE CENTER-RIGHT

The idea of expanding the centre-right to Vannacci is popular among FdI voters (59%) and among those of Futuro Nazionale (56%), while among the voters of FI, Lega and NM those against prevail (40%, against 30% of those in favor and 30% of those who are undecided), despite a reduced sample base.

VANNACCI IN THE CENTER-RIGHT: THE CHOICE OF THE OPPOSITES

Of those against, 18% would still confirm their vote, while 13% would change their vote or abstain.

WHO WOULD CHANGE VOTE OR ABSTAIN

The share of those who would change their vote or abstain is 12% among FdI voters, and rises to 18% among those of Lega, Forza Italia and Noi Moderati, where a significant part of the electorate is against the alliance. All things considered, we are talking about around 1.8 million voters who could move mainly towards abstention in the event of an alliance extended to the Vannaccians.

THE JUDGMENT ON THE STOP TO CAR TAX

Moving instead to the suspension of road tax in 2027 for motorbikes and cars up to 80 kW, 33% consider it a positive measure, which concretely helps families in difficulty, while 58% judge it negatively, as a way to gather easy consensus in view of the political elections. 9% do not express their opinion.

THE STOP TO STAMP ACCORDING TO VOTERS OF THE VARIOUS PARTIES

In the centre-right, 71% judge the stop to stamp duty positively (76% among FdI voters, 59% among those of FI, Lega and NM), while among Futuro Nazionale voters the opinion is divided (52% positive, 45% negative). In the broad field the rejection reaches 91%, with peaks of 95% among PD voters; among those M5s it is 82%, with 18% positive opinions. In the centrist area the negatives are 77%.

SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE: FOR 34% ITALY SHOULD STOP SENDING WEAPONS AND FUNDING

There is much discussion about the future of Italian support for Ukraine. 34% of those interviewed believe that Italy should stop sending weapons and financing to Kiev, taking a neutral position (-4% compared to December 2025), 16% would like to stop the weapons while maintaining economic support (-1%), 24% continue to send weapons without troops (-2%) and 6% increase military support even by sending troops (-1%).

MILITARY SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE ACCORDING TO CENTER-RIGHT VOTERS

The center-right is divided, with 33% in favor of military support, 44% for a stop to weapons and 23% undecided.

MILITARY SUPPORT FOR UKRAINE AMONG CENTER-LEFT VOTERS

Even among broad voters the picture is fragmented (43% in favor of military support and 46% against).

VOTING INTENTIONS: FDI STABLE, PD DECREASES, M5S AND FN RISE

If we went to vote today, Fratelli d'Italia's voting intentions are stable at 26.5% (same result as on 4 September), while the Democratic Party drops to 21.1% (-1.1%): the gap between the two parties rises to 5.4 points. The 5 Star Movement grows to 13.2% (+0.6%). In the centre-right, Futuro Nazionale rises to 8.1% (+0.2%) and remains ahead of Forza Italia, at 7.3% (-0.2%).

AVS AND LEAGUE RECOVERY, IV AND ACTION DECREASE

Avs rises to 5.9% (+1%), the League recovers to 5.1% (+0.7%). On the other hand, Azione (3.4%, -0.5%) and Italia Viva (2.2%, -0.2%) fell.

ABSTAINERS ARE GROWING

+Europe is stable at 1.6%. The Liberal Democratic Party is at 1.1% (-0.2%) and Now! stable at 1.1%. We Moderates is at 1.0% (+0.1%). The area of ​​abstentions and undecideds is widening, now at 34.1% (+0.5%).

VOTING INTENTIONS BY COALITION

The government bloc (FdI, FI, Lega, Nm) stands at 39.9%, which becomes 48% by adding Futuro Nazionale, even if it is difficult to imagine a simply algebraic sum. Roberto Vannacci's party has an influence above all among men (11.9% against 3.9% among women) and among 18-34 year olds (13.2%). The Giallorossi area (Pd, M5s, Avs) stands at 40.2%, which rises to 44% including Italia Viva and +Europa.

THE JUDGMENTS ON THE MELONI GOVERNMENT: NEGATIVE AT 59%

Positive opinions on the executive led by Giorgia Meloni dropped to 33% (-3%), negative ones remained at 59% and undecided ones rose to 8% (+3%). The negative balance widens by 26 points. Among centre-right voters the approval is 82% (93% among FdI voters), in the broad camp the negative opinions reach 90%. The voters of Futuro Nazionale are lukewarm, divided between 54% positive and 46% negative. In the centrist area the negatives are 77%.

METHODOLOGICAL NOTE

Survey carried out with CAWI methodology between 18 and 22 September 2026 on a sample of 810 interviewees representative of the adult population resident in Italy, investigated by gender and age quotas, stratified by educational qualification and ISTAT distribution of residence. The margin of error is ±3.4% with a 95% confidence interval.