South Korea expects warmer winter driven by strong El Nino

South Korea is likely to experience a warmer winter this year due to a stronger El Nino, which is expected to persist until February, according to the weather agency Friday.

Citing the World Meteorological Organization’s latest El Nino-La Nina update, the Korea Meteorological Administration said sea surface temperatures across the central and eastern equatorial Pacific are expected to continue rising through the fall.

Korea has historically experienced warmer and wetter winters when El Nino is at its strongest, although other factors also influence the country’s winter weather.

El Nino occurs when sea surface temperatures in the central and eastern equatorial Pacific remain unusually high, while La Nina describes unusually cool conditions in the same region.

The WMO said there is a 100 percent chance that El Nino conditions will persist through both the September-November and December-February periods.

The average sea surface temperature in the Nino 3.4 region — a specific area used to monitor El Nino — was 2.6 degrees Celsius above normal between Aug. 23-29. Monthly sea surface temperature anomalies in the region also rose steadily, from 0.8 degree in May to 1.4 degrees in June and 1.7 degrees in July, it said in the update.

The KMA also detected warmer-than-normal waters 50 to 250 meters below the surface in the eastern equatorial Pacific, a pattern typically associated with a developing El Niño.

Atmospheric changes, including increased convection and unusual westerly winds over the central and eastern equatorial Pacific, further suggest that the phenomenon will continue to strengthen, the KMA said.

The KMA’s forecasting model projects that sea surface temperatures in the monitoring region will rise to more than 3 degrees above normal this fall. An anomaly of 1.5 degrees or more is generally classified as a strong El Nino.

The agency, however, remained cautious, saying that other factors, including sea surface temperatures in the Indian Ocean and western Pacific and Arctic sea ice conditions, shape the country's winter weather.