BERLIN — Friedrich Merz’s center-left coalition partners increasingly see themselves facing a stark choice: Turn against the reform course they’ve struck with the chancellor or risk sinking with him.
Following the conservatives’ stinging defeat to the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) party in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday — a loss driven in great part by dissatisfaction with Merz and his party, the Christian Democratic Union — there are early signs the Social Democratic Party is turning against the series of reforms it has agreed to push through with the unpopular chancellor.
The SPD’s pivot is likely to deepen Merz’s myriad challenges as questions mount over his ability to lead Germany’s relatively weak coalition government. Merz has acknowledged that his dismal approval ratings helped fuel the AfD’s victory in Saxony-Anhalt on Sunday, but argues that the answer is to press ahead with his reform agenda while doing a better job of explaining its necessity to voters.
That’s not the conclusion his center-left coalition partners have drawn: They argue the problem isn’t one of messaging but of substance.
“The path the federal government has taken with its reform plans has caused particular uncertainty,” Rasha Nasr, an SPD lawmaker in the Bundestag, told POLITICO’s Berlin Playbook Podcast. “It’s very important now that, unlike others in the coalition, we don’t just push this through. The people of Saxony-Anhalt have told us very clearly: ‘This far and no further,’” she added.
Merz has staked his chancellorship on tackling economic and welfare reforms that previous governments deemed too politically difficult, even branding himself the “reform chancellor.” His agenda includes raising the retirement age to shore up the pension system, cutting some health-insurance benefits to curb rising premiums and making it harder for workers to take sick leave in an effort to boost growth.
Until now, the SPD under the leadership of Finance Minister Lars Klingbeil has advanced the reform drive, portraying itself as willing to undertake the tough choices needed to restore Germany’s economy while fighting inside the coalition to resist conservative excesses.
But given Merz’s growing troubles — and rising questions about the durability of the coalition government — the party’s calculus appears to have changed. The shift also comes ahead of two additional state elections on Sept. 20 in which the SPD is hoping to score at least one much-needed win.
Klingbeil signaled a course change already on the night of the Saxony-Anhalt election. The result provides “a reason to reflect on policies here in Berlin and on the federal government’s reform agenda,” Klingbeil told public broadcaster ZDF as votes were still being counted. “And rest assured, that’s exactly what we’ll do.”
The open disagreement prompted the chancellor to discuss divisions between the coalition parties with SPD leaders Klingbeil and Bärbel Bas on Monday via phone, according to a senior government official who was granted anonymity to discuss internal matters.
SPD hopes for redemption
Given its own political weakness, the SPD is very unlikely to pull the plug on the current coalition — a move that would trigger new elections while its poll numbers are scraping historic lows. The party is currently polling at around 12 percent, 4.4 percentage points below its share of the vote in the 2025 federal election, which was its worst result in well over a century.
But the recent signals from SPD leaders suggest they are looking ahead to their own political survival as Merz’s chancellorship grows increasingly precarious.
It also comes as the SPD sees a rare glimmer of hope for an election boon that could restore some of the party’s battered political standing.
In the eastern state of Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania ahead of a Sept. 20 election, the SPD’s incumbent premier, Manuela Schwesig, is polling a strong second behind the AfD. Under Schwesig — who ranks among Germany’s most well-liked politicians, according to surveys — the SPD has been able to cut into the far right’s lead in recent weeks.
An SPD victory in the state — or even a serious challenge to the AfD’s lead — could give the beleaguered center-left party a desperately needed political boost.
But what’s more significant for Germany’s coalition is the way Schwesig has at least in part attained her popularity: by railing against Merz’s reform drive, depicting the overhauls as harsh and unjust.
“Yes, we need social reforms, the welfare state must be stabilized, and labor costs must not rise,” she told Welt TV on Monday. “But it is unacceptable that, of all people, those who work the hardest and contribute the most are the ones bearing the heaviest burden. Many people also perceive this as unfair. And that is why it is important to change course here.”
Should the SPD congeal around Schwesig and her criticisms, it’s likely to further complicate Merz’s ability to govern and pass legislation that satisfies his increasingly restive conservative faction.
‘Unwavering determination’
Already, disagreements between the SPD and Merz’s conservatives are spilling into the open.
SPD politicians are questioning the coalition’s previously agreed plan to make it harder for workers to take sick days, a measure that sparked public outrage and, for many, reinforced Merz’s image as lacking empathy with regular people. SPD politicians have also called for renewed state subsidies to lower fuel prices — a proposal Merz’s CDU rejects as too expensive.
“Clearly, when it comes to specific measures, there are certainly issues we need to address this fall,” Tim Klüssendorf, the SPD’s general secretary, said of the reforms on German television this week. “Take, for example, pensions, long-term care, and health care, but also the question of whether we’re finally going to do something about these gas prices, including through regulatory measures. These are certainly the measures that must now be put on the table as a direct consequence of the election results.”
