Dagens Nyheter51 minutes agoPolitics2 min read

Political scientist: The vote no obstacle for Andersson

Quick Look

Despite the fact that S leader Magdalena Andersson does not see the conditions to form a government, speaker Andreas Norlén will propose her as prime minister ahead of Thursday's vote in the Riksdag, a move which, according to experts, aims to pressure the parties and avoid by-elections.

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Why It Matters

Sweden faces a government formation process after the election where no party has its own majority. Magdalena Andersson has previously investigated the possibilities of forming a government but has not received sufficient support.

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S leader Magdalena Andersson does not believe that there are conditions for her to form a government at the moment. Despite that, Speaker Andreas Norlén will propose her as Prime Minister before the Riksdag, which will vote on the issue on Thursday.

- The speaker is using this opportunity to put pressure on the parties, force the process and thereby avoid a by-election, says Tommy Möller, political scientist at Stockholm University.

He points out that Magdalena Andersson could have said no to a vote. The Speaker cannot put forward a candidate who does not want to, says Möller.

- Reasonably, she makes the assessment that this is a way to force the process. The fact that she stands up for this means that she has considered the various options and found that this is the best in this situation, he says and continues:

- The fact that she waives additional time for probing is also an expression of her making an assessment that it would be good from her point of view to force the process. Of course, refraining from continuing to probe based on the speaker's assignment does not mean that Andersson does not continue to talk to the other three party leaders.

Andersson will likely not be tolerated by the Riksdag in Thursday's vote, so after that it is up to the speaker to hand out the assignment again. It may end up with Moderate leader Ulf Kristersson or Center leader Elisabeth Thand Ringqvist. Similarly, Magdalena Andersson can get another chance.

- You could see her being voted down four times in a row, although it is not the most likely. It sounds to the speaker as if he wants to keep the options open, says Oskar Hultin Bäckersten, political scientist at Mälardalen University.

He assesses that Magdalena Andersson's opportunities are not impaired by her being voted down on Thursday. The closer the threat of a by-election comes, the more eager the parties may become to compromise.

- It is a much-anticipated outcome in the process that does not at all constitute an obstacle for her to become prime minister. It is a step closer to a by-election and it increases the pressure on the parties to actually solve this, he says.

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What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

Magdalena Andersson will not receive enough support in Thursday's vote in the Riksdag.
Likely · Within days
The Speaker will give the task of forming a government to someone else after the vote if Andersson does not get support.
Likely · Within days
The parties will increase their willingness to compromise the closer the threat of by-elections gets.
Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

Will Magdalena Andersson get enough support in Thursday's vote?
Who will be tasked with forming a government if Andersson is voted down?
Will the parties reach a compromise to avoid by-elections?