Since the rise of the AfD, there has been speculation about the reasons behind those who support the party. Typical AfD supporters are often portrayed as workers with lower levels of education and income who feel left behind by socio-economic modernization. But can this explain the broad support for the AfD? Or does concern about immigration play a bigger role than previously thought?
A team led by Martin Schröder, professor of sociology at Saarland University, investigated this question in a scientific study. For their analysis, the scientists evaluated data from the Socio-Economic Panel (SOEP), the largest and oldest population survey in Germany. The study is based on more than 110,000 individual surveys from almost 32,000 people and covers the period from 2014 to 2024.
The results show that concerns about immigration are the most important reason for the party's support - and have been since the AfD was founded. No other indicator predicts support for this party so clearly and consistently over the period examined. In order to be able to make this statement, the scientists calculated average values from the respondents' answers. The results show: Those who are more worried about immigration than this average are more likely to support the AfD.
This connection continued to grow stronger until 2019, weakened somewhat during the corona pandemic, and then rose even more strongly in 2023 and 2024. Concerns about migration are not only consistently the strongest indicator of whether someone supports the AfD - the connection is also becoming stronger. A lower level of education or a lower income, on the other hand, turned out to be insignificant factors in explaining why someone supports the AfD.
The study thus refutes the so-called modernization loser hypothesis, according to which certain population groups feel left behind by globalization, social change or economic upheaval and therefore turn to parties like the AfD. The question of disadvantage was recorded subjectively and objectively in the study.
To assess objective disadvantage, the level of education and household income were recorded in relation to the other respondents. To assess subjectively perceived disadvantage, satisfaction with household income, personal income and general life satisfaction were recorded, as were concerns about one's own financial situation and the economic situation in Germany.
The results show that the direct connection between concern about immigration and sympathy for the AfD does not change significantly as a result of objective or subjectively perceived disadvantage. On the contrary: people with a high level of education and high income are also more likely to support the AfD if they are very worried about immigration.
To illustrate this, the scientists predicted the probability of a vote in favor of the AfD for two statistically constructed individuals. Person one represents a disadvantaged “loser” of modernization, with the lowest level of education, the lowest relative income, the lowest level of satisfaction and maximum worries about their own finances and the German economy. However, person one is not worried about immigration. According to the scientists' calculations, this person only has a probability of 3.7 percent supporting the AfD.
In contrast to person one, person two is a “winner” of modernization, with the highest level of education and a relatively high income, the highest possible level of satisfaction and no worries about their own finances or the economic situation in Germany. However, person two is more concerned about immigration. The calculated probability that this person supports the AfD is eight percent and is therefore more than twice as high.
Because Professor Schröder and his team observed the same people over several years, they were also able to investigate the question of what changing conditions led people to go from non-AfD supporters to AfD supporters within the study period. In the data set examined, this affected 936 people in almost 3,600 individual surveys.
The results here also show that those who start to worry more than average about immigration are more likely - 20 percentage points - to support the AfD. In addition, only above-average concern about Germany's economic situation has a significant influence on whether a person supports the AfD or not.
Martin Schröder's team of scientists therefore comes to the conclusion that concerns about immigration to Germany already explain support for the AfD so comprehensively that socioeconomic disadvantage provides neither a good additional nor alternative explanation for support for the party.
Where concerns about immigration come from was not the focus of the study. However, the results indicate that proposed political solutions aimed at socioeconomic equality will not help win back voters and keep the AfD down.
