The policy rate is left unchanged - but the Riksbank raises the interest rate threat

The policy rate remains at 1.75 percent, according to a statement from the Riksbank on Thursday morning. The authority's executive board states, however, that a stronger economy and continued supply disruptions in the Middle East lead to the assessment that it will have to be increased more than previous forecasts if inflation is to stabilize around the 2 percent target.

In addition to the ongoing war, the Riksbank assesses that the policy rate may be raised already later this year because the price of oil, electricity and fuel has risen, and in addition a continued weakening of the krona. In the new forecast, it is raised each quarter to an average of 2.38 percent in the third quarter of 2027.

- The Riksbank is not raising the interest rate today, but on the other hand, they are raising the interest rate threat. The Riksbank's forecast indicates two or three interest rate increases next year, starting at Christmas, says Avanza's savings economist Felicia Schön.

- By raising interest rates, the Riksbank sends a clear signal that the period with the interest floor may be coming to an end and it is time to prepare the economy for higher interest costs.

Like her, SPP's savings economist Shoka Åhrman understands the Riksbank's caution. Interest rates have not necessarily bottomed out, she reasons, and there are several reasons why the Riksbank is still vigilant.

- The Swedish economy has started to recover, households' purchasing power is being strengthened and companies are seeing better demand. It is fundamentally positive, but a stronger economy also means that the risk of new inflationary pressure increases if demand picks up too quickly, says Shoka Åhrman.

Today's monetary policy decision applies from 30 September. The next announcement about the policy rate will come on 4 November 2026.