The search continues: Who will be the successor to UN Secretary General Guterres?

The good news: After the fifth test vote, the field of applicants is thinning out. Of the seven candidates, only one remains with a realistic chance of succeeding Antonio Guterres: it is the former Vice President of Costa Rica, Rebeca Grynspan.

Until her candidacy, the 70-year-old was Secretary General of the UN Conference on Trade and Development - UNCTAD. In this role, she brokered the grain agreement between Ukraine and Russia in 2022.

The bad news for Grynspan: In the fifth test vote among the 15 member states, there were six votes against, three more than before.

Probably looking for new person

So it's not a positive dynamic for Grynspan, which is why it's becoming increasingly likely that the five veto powers will start looking for a completely new person in the next few weeks who hasn't even run for office yet.

The transparent selection process with applicant interviews and town hall debate organized by the former President of the UN General Assembly, Annalena Baerbock, would then have failed.

Whether this actually happens will probably be decided on October 16th. Then the UN Security Council will vote with colored ballot papers for the first time. This makes it clear how many veto powers continue to reject Grynspan.

If only a veto power lowers its thumb, it could at least continue to hope. If two or more veto powers are against her, the search for a successor to Guterres would have to start all over again.

In order to prevail in the Security Council, at least 9 of the 15 member states must agree. And more importantly, none of the five veto powers can refuse. Only those who succeed in this can ultimately be chosen as the new UN Secretary General by all 193 member states in the General Assembly.

To date, the General Assembly has always approved the Security Council's personnel proposal. However, in more than eight decades since the United Nations was founded, no woman has ever been elected to the top spot.