Tarcísio de Freitas (Republicans) arrives this Sunday (4) as favorite against Fernando Haddad (PT) after a monotonous campaign, in which the current governor, well evaluated, limited exposure to avoid mistakes and the opponent was unable to overcome limitations in a state with an anti-PT majority.
The expectation is that the dispute will end in the first round. Tarcísio had the support of all parties on the right and center-right, leaving no room for an alternative in this political field, just as Haddad brought together the biggest parties on the center-left, despite other more left-wing candidacies remaining.
Tarcísio's campaign received more funding than his opponent's. Until Friday (2), according to data declared to the TSE (Superior Electoral Court), the governor contracted R$25.1 million in expenses, 79% more than Haddad's R$14 million.
The PT member allocated R$7.9 million (57% of the total) to the production of radio, TV and video programs. As for the governor, R$10.2 million (41%) went to services provided by third parties and R$4 million to the production of programs.
The largest electoral college in the country, São Paulo focused the attention of the two main presidential campaigns. While the PT launched Haddad to reinforce President Lula's (PT) campaign in the state, Flávio Bolsonaro (PL) hoped to find in Tarcísio a bridge to reach São Paulo voters.
One of the reasons for installing the PL candidate's campaign headquarters in São Paulo was to enable public agendas with Tarcísio. They, however, were not so frequent, which generated discontent among the presidential candidate's allies in the state.
The controlled distance in relation to Flávio was due, according to allies, to their less than close relationship and the fear of contamination by controversies involving the presidential campaign. In an agenda at the beginning of the month, Tarcísio told interlocutors that he would support his ally, but that he would not hug him.
From the beginning of the campaign, on August 16, until Friday (2), the governor visited 28 cities and held 75 events with supporters. In seven days, Tarcísio was with Flávio.
Supporters of the Bolsonaro family hope that the head of Palácio dos Bandeirantes will enter the presidential campaign in a possible second round — especially if the governor wins re-election this Sunday.
Throughout the campaign, the governor's main concern was the below-expected performance of his Senate candidates, André do Prado (PL) and Guilherme Derrite (PP), in opinion polls. They were competing for the vote of the Bolsonarist right with Ricardo Salles (Novo), who was running independently.
Tarcísio constructed a political way out: he sought out Salles, with whom he did not have a good relationship, and sealed an agreement, with undisclosed terms, which resulted in his withdrawal.
Although Tarcísio and Haddad faced each other for the same position in 2022, the circumstances were different. Four years ago, the dispute was new in the state because it left out the PSDB for the first time in almost 30 years, with both advancing to the second round.
Haddad maintained a platform similar to that of the last election. In 2022, he had PT, PC do B, PV, PSB, PSOL and Rede and received the support of PDT and Solidariedade in the second round. This year, only Solidariedade is not with the PT member in the state dispute.
The PT member announced his pre-candidacy in March this year. Then Minister of Finance, he resisted the idea of running again as a candidate after having suffered consecutive defeats in elections.
Lula and the PT leadership insisted for months that someone from the party be the head of the ticket in the state. The group sought to repeat or improve the 2022 result in São Paulo, where Haddad's campaign for governor was seen as a success: despite the defeat, the PT reduced the difference in votes for Bolsonarism compared to 2018.
Tarcísio was already leading the voting intention polls this year when Haddad decided to run. Even in this scenario, the PT member said that he was not just looking to provide Lula with a platform, but to win.
Given the distance between Tarcísio and Flávio, Haddad sought to convey the idea of a united platform on the left and promoted several agendas with Senate candidates Marina Silva (Rede) and Simone Tebet (PSB). The PT member also focused heavily on Lula in his speeches and was with the president on all of his trips to São Paulo — five, in the first round.
Haddad also sought the support of mayors from the interior, claiming that they were dissatisfied with the governor, but his campaign was ignored by 15 of the 18 mayors in his coalition. PT members told the report that there is a movement in favor of Lula by many mayors, but, for fear of alienating Tarcísio, they declared public support for the governor.
Since March 23, Haddad has visited 45 cities in the state, in addition to the capital. The itinerary included municipalities from different regions of São Paulo, from Baixada Santista to the northwest of São Paulo. Considering only the commitments from August 16th, 24 cities were visited in addition to the capital, according to a survey based on the official agenda made available by the campaign.
During the election, Haddad criticized the privatization of Sabesp, mentioning a lack of water in several cities, problems with pipelines and an increase in tariffs, which would contradict Tarcísio's promise to reduce them with privatization. The PT member also drew attention to the increase in femicides and the results below other states in the Ideb (Basic Education Development Index).
The PT member's main focus was public security — an area considered a historic challenge for the left and which was treated as a priority for the election.
During the campaign, the two candidates faced each other directly only twice: on Band, on August 9, and on Globo, last Tuesday (29). The presidential candidates they support did not debate once in this first round.
In both meetings, discussions were lukewarm. Both abused economese to debate public accounts and avoided harsher criticism of their opponent. National themes prevailed, with Tarcísio accusing the Lula government of blocking investments and loans in the state and Haddad claiming that federal management was responsible for achievements boasted by the governor in the last three years.
