CBRT September Household Expectations Survey Results Published

CBRT published the results of the Household Expectations Survey for September.

Households' house price increase expectation for the next 12 months was 30.69 percent in September. This rate was 32.13 percent in August and 32.49 percent in July.

Thus, the annual increase expectation in house prices decreased by 1.44 points in one month and by 1.80 points since July.

The house price increase expectation, which was 39.23 percent at the beginning of the year, dropped to 30.69 percent in September. This rate was at its lowest level in 2026.

THOSE WHO SAY THEY WILL INVEST IN REAL ESTATE HAVE ALSO DECREASED

In parallel with the decline in expectations regarding housing prices, there was also a decrease in the rate of those who stated that they would invest in real estate.

The rate of those who responded "I would buy a house/shop/land, etc." to the investment preference question posed to households was 33.60 percent in September. This rate was 37.09 percent in August and 38.46 percent in July.

Thus, the rate of those who stated that they will invest in real estate decreased by 3.49 points compared to August and by 4.86 points compared to July.

This rate, which was 31.23 percent at the beginning of the year, reached one of the highest levels of the year with 37.13 percent in June.

HOUSING'S RETURN EXPECTATION IS BEHIND THE INFLATION

When the decline in expectations for housing prices is evaluated together with the inflation expectations of households, a more striking picture emerges.

While households expect inflation to be 45.60 percent in the next 12 months in September, they predict that house prices will increase by 30.69 percent.

Thus, there was a difference of 14.91 points between the house price increase expectation and the inflation expectation.

This table shows that although households expect a nominal increase in house prices, they think that this increase may remain below the general price level. The decrease in the rate of those who say they will invest in real estate in the same period reveals that expectations regarding the attractiveness of housing as an investment tool have weakened.

SEPTEMBER DECLINE IN BOTH DATA

Looking at the last three months, a downward movement in both the expectation of a house price increase and the rate of those who say they will invest in real estate is remarkable.

While house prices were expected to increase by 32.49 percent in the next 12 months in July, this rate decreased to 30.69 percent in September. In the same period, the rate of those who stated that they would invest in real estate decreased from 38.46 percent to 33.60 percent.

When the data are evaluated together, it is seen that households expect a lower increase in housing prices and at the same time their orientation towards real estate in their investment preferences has decreased in recent months.

REAL DECLINE CONTINUES

The House Price Index increased by 0.9 percent in August compared to the previous month. KPI increased by 23 percent in nominal terms and decreased by 6.5 percent in real terms compared to the same month of the previous year. There has been a real decrease in housing in 29 of the last 30 months.

The results of CBRT's expectation surveys reveal predictions that this situation will continue in the coming period.