According to the CBRT's November Market Participants Survey, the CPI year-end increase expectation increased to 30.04 percent.
GDP growth expectations remained stable; Current account deficit forecast decreased
Quick Look
- According to the CBRT's November Market Participants Survey, the CPI increase expectation increased to 30.04 percent for the end of the year.
- While Dollar/TL expectations also increased, GDP growth expectation remained stable at 2.9 percent for the end of the year.
- The current account deficit expectation decreased to 46.1 billion dollars.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
CBRT conducted the November Market Participants Survey with 70 participants, including real and financial sector representatives and professionals, and published the results.
CBRT published the November Market Participants Survey, which was conducted with 70 participants consisting of real and financial sector representatives and professionals.
Accordingly, the October CPI increase expectation, which was 1.18 percent last month, decreased to 1.09 percent in this survey period. The increase expectation in CPI increased from 29.63 percent to 30.04 percent for the end of the year, from 23.89 percent to 24.04 percent for the next 12 months, and from 17.94 percent to 18.02 percent for the next 24 months.
Participants' year-end dollar/TL expectation increased from 51.5471 to 51.6146, and their 12-month later dollar/TL expectation increased from 59.2596 to 60.7654.
While the year-end current account deficit expectation, which was 48.5 billion dollars in the previous survey period, decreased to 46.1 billion dollars, it increased from 43.8 billion dollars to 43.9 billion dollars for the next year.
Year-end growth expectation remains unchanged
In the survey, the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) increase expectation for the current year remained constant at 2.9 percent, while it was maintained at 3.9 percent for the next year.
In the survey, while the CBRT's first meeting expectation regarding the policy rate was 35 percent, the second meeting expectation decreased to 34.30 percent, the third meeting expectation decreased to 33.37 percent, and the policy rate expectation for 12 months later decreased to 28.90 percent.
Open Questions
- What is the detailed organizational distribution of survey participants?
- What are the main reasons for changes in expectations?



