No. 4 Texas has spent the past five years building towards this moment, the culmination of the Steve Sarkisian era in Austin.
Following the inconsistent results of the 2010s, Texas has wholeheartedly embraced the NIL era. They landed many of the state's best players, including defensive end Colin Simmons. They added the most sought-after status symbol in football: A Manning.
On Saturday, No. 1 Ohio State comes to Darrell K. Royal-Texas Memorial Stadium. It's the third straight season the Longhorns have played the Buckeyes, and both prior meetings ended in terrible, frustrating losses marred by coaching and execution errors.
Since 2024, Texas has played championship-level programs Ohio State and Georgia five times. Sarkisian is 0-5 against Ryan Day and Kirby Smart over that stretch. The Longhorns are 24-1 against everyone else.
Saturday is a pivotal opportunity for Texas to prove it can contend with the best. It's the defining game of the Sarkisian era, and one Sarkisian cannot afford to lose.
What NFL scouts say about Texas QB Arch Manning ahead of Ohio State test: 'Good's really good, but ...'
Matt Zenitz
Going all in
After narrowly missing the College Football Playoff last season, the Longhorns decided to push all their chips to the middle to maximize what is expected to be Arch Manning's final year.
The Longhorns invested heavily in convincing left tackle Trevor Goosby, defensive tackle Hero Kanu and safety Jelani McDonald to return to school. They added wide receiver Cam Coleman, linebacker Rasheem Biles and running backs Raleek Brown and Hollywood Smothers via the transfer portal. They also made a major coaching change, replacing highly respected defensive coordinator Pete Kwiatkowski with Will Muschamp.
On paper, the Longhorns are nearly unimpeachable. They've got playmakers at every level of the field and a coaching staff fully built in Sarkisian's image. They're a veteran group with multi-year program leaders.
After trusting their development at running back and wide receiver in 2025, they left nothing to chance. Coleman is regarded as the No. 2 receiver in college football after arriving from Auburn, and Wake Forest transfer Sterling Berkhalter is a key depth piece. Brown was a 1,000-yard rusher at Arizona State, and Smothers came a stone's throw away from the mark.
"It kind of reminds me when Joe Burrow had Justin Jefferson and Ja'Marr Chase," Texas State coach G.J. Kinne told CBS Sports' Matt Zenitz. "He's got elite weapons around him and he's really talented."
In so many ways, Ohio State is the model for Texas' strategy. Two years ago, the Buckeyes managed to retain several key defensive playmakers and added key transfers on offense to surround returning stars Emeka Egbuka and TreVeyon Henderson. The group ultimately barnstormed its way to the national championship behind one of the most impressive playoff performances in history.
While Texas reaches a peak, Ohio State is reloading in 2026. Four Ohio State players were picked in the top 11 of the 2026 NFL Draft, and seven overall were picked in the top two rounds. Five of those players were on defense, including superstar safety Caleb Downs. Quarterback Julian Sayin and wide receiver Jeremiah Smith both finished in the top 10 in Heisman voting last season, but much of the supporting cast is new.
Ohio State showed the model for competing at the highest level. Against those same Buckeyes, Sarkisian has to prove he can follow.
If Texas loses
Last season, the Texas loss to Ohio State proved costly. The Longhorns ended up on the outside of the College Football Playoff bubble, despite beating playoff squads Oklahoma and Texas A&M along the way.
Following the 14-7 loss to Ohio State, Texas embarked on an inconsistent season. There was the brutal 29-21 loss against Florida and overtime matchups against lowly Kentucky and Mississippi State. Then, the Longhorns were flattened 35-10 against Georgia, proving again that they couldn't hang with the true elite.
While Texas will have a shot to recover, the schedule is even more unforgiving in 2026. Two weeks after Ohio State, there are road trips to No. 18 Tennessee and the Cotton Bowl for No. 11 Oklahoma. No. 8 LSU, No. 9 Ole Miss and No. 10 Texas A&M are all on the schedule, too.
With the new nine-game SEC conference schedule, a 9-3 record will probably be enough to reach the postseason, but there's no guarantee. And if it's not enough -- or even if it leads to an early exit -- Sarkisian's handling of the Manning era will come under intense scrutiny, just as Brian Kelly's with Garrett Nussmeier or James Franklin's with Drew Allar before him.
Heat can rise faster than ever at a moment where real money is on the line every single season. It's time for Sarkisian to finally get over the hump.
