Texas Longhorns Face Texas State Bobcats in 2026 Season Opener
Quick Look
- The Texas Longhorns, ranked fourth nationally, open their 2026 college football season against the Texas State Bobcats at Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin, with kickoff set for 3:30 p.m.
- Texas is a 29.5-point favorite, and the SportsLine Projection Model predicts the game will go Under 60.5 total points, forecasting 49 combined points based on 10,000 simulations.
- Texas State returns starting quarterback Brad Jackson and two 1,000-yard receivers, while Texas features new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp and aims to reach the College Football Playoff after missing it in 2025.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 college football season as the nation's top-ranked team in the preseason polls but finished outside the College Football Playoff field. Arch Manning and the Longhorns aim to clear that CFP hurdle in 2026. Texas State will be part of a revamped Pac-12 Conference and is coached by former Longhorns quarterback G.J. Kinne.
The Texas Longhorns entered the 2025 college football season as the nation's top-ranked team in the preseason polls. They finished outside the College Football Playoff field. Arch Manning and the Longhorns aim to clear that CFP hurdles in 2026, as fourth-ranked Texas hosts the Texas State Bobcats to begin a new season. It's also an exciting time for the Bobcats, who will be part of a revamped Pac-12 Conference and coached by former Longhorns quarterback G.J. Kinne. Visit our DraftKings promo code review and get $200 in bonus bets as a new user after $5+ in wagers here:
Kickoff is set for 3:30 p.m. ET from Texas Memorial Stadium in Austin. The Longhorns are 29.5-point favorites in the latest Texas State vs. Texas odds, while the over/under is 60.5. Before making any Texas vs. Texas State picks, check out the Texas vs. Texas State predictions from the SportsLine Projection Model.
The model simulates every FBS game 10,000 times. It is on a 32-19 run on top-rated CFB money-line picks since the 2024 season, and it has been upgraded for the 2026 season to even better factor in the transfer portal to help nail college football betting picks at sportsbooks and on betting sites.
Now, the model has set its sights on Texas State vs. Texas. You can visit SportsLine now to see the picks. Here are the FBS college football odds and trends for Texas vs. Texas State:
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Top Texas vs. Texas State predictions
Anyone looking for Texas prediction markets should know that after 10,000 simulations of Texas State vs. Texas, the SportsLine model is going Under (60.5 points) on the total.
Texas State ranked 12th in the nation in scoring last year and returns starting QB Brad Jackson, who threw 21 TDs as as a freshman. The Bobcats were the only FBC team to have two 1,000-yard receivers, and both of them are back, too. But the Texas' defense is supposed to be top-tier, with new defensive coordinator Will Muschamp taking over. The squad allowed only 20 ppg last year and has playmakers at each level. The advanced model calls for 49 combined points to be scored, well under the posted total. See the model's spread and money-line picks at SportsLine.
How to make Texas State vs. Texas picks
SportsLine's model has simulated Texas State vs. Texas 10,000 times and says one side of the spread hits nearly 60% of the time. You can only get the pick at SportsLine.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
The Texas vs. Texas State game will go Under 60.5 total points.
Likely · Within days
Texas will cover the 29.5-point spread against Texas State.
Likely · Within days
Open Questions
- Will Arch Manning lead Texas to the College Football Playoff in 2026?
- How will G.J. Kinne perform as a first-time head coach at Texas State?
- Can Texas State's offense challenge Texas' top-tier defense?
