
An analysis of the political strategy to exclude the Alternative for Germany (AfD) from governing coalitions and its increasing strain in practice.
AI-generated summary
The 'firewall' is a metaphor for the CDU's refusal to cooperate with the AfD. It is rooted in a 2018 resolution of incompatibility.
A firewall is a wall designed to prevent a fire from spreading from one building to another. In German politics, the term "firewall" serves as a metaphor for a strict boundary drawn against parties regarded as extremist. Just as a firewall is intended to protect buildings from fire, the "political firewall" is intended to safeguard democracy.
Whether the Alternative for Germany (AfD) is in fact a party that is hostile to democracy has not yet been determined by the courts. While Germany's domestic intelligence agency, the Federal Office for the Protection of the Constitution, has classified individual AfD state associations as "confirmed right-wing extremist," the question of whether the party as a whole is acting against the German constitution would have to be decided by the Federal Constitutional Court in proceedings to ban the party.
Calls for an AfD ban have been made repeatedly, but no formal application has been filed to date.
Chancellor Merz is growing tired of the term 'firewall'
The term "political firewall" cannot be clearly attributed to any single originator. However, its widespread use is due in large part to Friedrich Merz.
Upon becoming leader of the center-right Christian Democratic Union (CDU) in December 2021, for example, he told the German news magazine Der Spiegel: "Under my leadership, there will be a firewall against the AfD."
In 2018, the CDU adopted a so-called "resolution of incompatibility" at its party conference, rejecting "coalitions and similar forms of cooperation" with both the AfD and the socialist Left Party.
This did not apply only to formal agreements and coalitions with the AfD. At times, the CDU also deliberately sought majorities without AfD support, and CDU officeholders declined to be elected to political positions with AfD votes.
January 2025 marked a break from that path: A CDU motion in the Bundestag calling for the rejection of asylum seekers passed with AfD support. At the time, Merz was leader of the CDU and thus of the parliamentary opposition. To this day, critics continue to accuse him of breaching the firewall policy.
Now chancellor, Merz tends to avoid the term and has grown increasingly irritated by questions about it.
The center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and the ecologist Greens reject any cooperation with the AfD, although without formal resolutions to that effect. Sahra Wagenknecht, founder of the left-wing populist Alliance Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW), takes a different stance. She explicitly opposes excluding the AfD and would even be willing to pave the way for an AfD-led government in the eastern German state of Saxony-Anhalt, where elections will be held on September 6.
No firewall at the municipal level
The reliance on AfD votes by Merz's CDU in January 2025 triggered shock and outrage, but it wasn't the first time a politician who officially supports the firewall doesn't adhere to it in practice. In 2020, Thomas Kemmerich from the neoliberal FDP was elected Premier of Thuringia with AfD votes.
Angela Merkel, who was chancellor at the time, was alarmed and demanded that the election "must be reversed."
Kemmerich resigned just a few days later.
At the local level, however, the firewall is often highly permeable. In city and municipal councils, politicians from other parties have repeatedly voted alongside the AfD. Proponents of this more relaxed attitude often argue that, for example, building a daycare center does not become a bad idea simply because the AfD also supports it.
Critics, however, regularly warn of a gradual process of normalization. In their view, such cooperation makes the AfD socially acceptable, and what begins in local politics could eventually spread to state or even federal politics.
Can 40% of voters be ignored?
The firewall policy does not appear to be harming the AfD. On the contrary, its poll ratings continue to rise, despite, or perhaps even because of, the firewall.
When the AfD is particularly strong, as it is across much of eastern Germany, the other parties represented in state parliaments often have to join forces to prevent an AfD-led state government. This can come at the expense of the credibility of parties whose ideological positions are far apart.
Political scientists also point to a democratic deficit if the political preferences of AfD voters are ignored over the long term.
Sahra Wagenknecht (BSW) recently said of Saxony-Anhalt: "It is simply completely undemocratic to permanently exclude a party supported by around 40% of voters. The firewall has failed."
Some CDU politicians in eastern Germany have questioned the rationale behind the firewall. The Brandenburg branch of the Small and Medium Enterprises and Economic Union, an internal CDU interest group, recently submitted a motion calling on the party "at the federal level to work toward repealing or fundamentally revising the CDU's incompatibility resolution vis-a-vis the AfD."
Following strong criticism from the federal party leadership, the group withdrew the motion.
Saxony's CDU Premier Michael Kretschmer, who leads a minority government in Dresden, recently told the German business daily Handelsblatt: "Anyone still talking about firewalls has failed to recognize the signs of the times. We need to talk to everyone who is willing to talk."
At the federal level, the CDU would prefer to put an end to such debates altogether. Thorsten Frei, the new chair of the Bundestag's conservative parliamentary group, which includes the Christian Social Union (CSU), has made clear that he will not tolerate deviations by individual state branches.
"The ban on cooperation with the AfD is a fundamental party resolution of the CDU. It cannot be interpreted differently from one federal state to another," he told newspapers belonging to the Funke Media Group.
The chancellor, too, is holding firm now. Despite the immense pressure and the challenging political landscape in eastern Germany, and aside from the break in January 2025, he continues to uphold the resolution of incompatibility with both the AfD and the Left Party.
How governing majorities opposed to the AfD can be formed in the future therefore remains an open question.
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Elections in Saxony-Anhalt on September 6.
Very likely · Within months
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