Breaking
RUThe fire in the Miller mansion in the center of St. Petersburg has been localizedRUUkrainian forces shell Donetsk People's Republic 14 times in 24 hours, wounding two civiliansAUNewcastle Knights and City United Ahead of NRL Grand FinalTROil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was hit with ammunitionUSFanDuel Promo Code Offers $250 in Bonus Bets for New Users Ahead of Steelers vs. Browns TNF MatchupINTLTennessee governor suspends executions after botched lethal injection leaves death row inmate aliveITNations League: results of the third day, Germany beats Serbia 2-0, Denmark loses 2-4 against PortugalTRTwo car collision in Birecik: 1 dead, 7 injuredTRGermany beat Serbia 2-0CNShin Kong Mitsukoshi's first-day sales reached 1.55 billion yuan and customers exceeded 145,000 on the first day of its anniversary celebrationRUThe fire in the Miller mansion in the center of St. Petersburg has been localizedRUUkrainian forces shell Donetsk People's Republic 14 times in 24 hours, wounding two civiliansAUNewcastle Knights and City United Ahead of NRL Grand FinalTROil tanker passing through the Strait of Hormuz was hit with ammunitionUSFanDuel Promo Code Offers $250 in Bonus Bets for New Users Ahead of Steelers vs. Browns TNF MatchupINTLTennessee governor suspends executions after botched lethal injection leaves death row inmate aliveITNations League: results of the third day, Germany beats Serbia 2-0, Denmark loses 2-4 against PortugalTRTwo car collision in Birecik: 1 dead, 7 injuredTRGermany beat Serbia 2-0CNShin Kong Mitsukoshi's first-day sales reached 1.55 billion yuan and customers exceeded 145,000 on the first day of its anniversary celebration
BackTreasury yields retreat from multi-decade highs amid global bond market pressures
Treasury yields retreat from multi-decade highs amid global bond market pressures
Developing
CNBC56 minutes agoBusiness2 min read

Treasury yields retreat from multi-decade highs amid global bond market pressures

Quick Look

  • Treasury yields fell on Thursday after reaching levels not seen in decades, with the 10-year yield dropping 5 basis points to 5.243% and the 30-year yield declining over 2 basis points to 5.613%.
  • Global government borrowing costs continued rising as investors reacted to persistent fiscal deficits, stubborn inflation, and central bank rate hikes, while oil market turbulence linked to the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran added volatility to bond markets.

AI-generated summary

Why It Matters

Treasury yields had been rising to levels not seen in decades, driven by persistent inflation, large fiscal deficits, and central bank interest rate hikes. Global government borrowing costs have increased amid concerns over debt sustainability, particularly in advanced economies facing emerging-market-style fiscal pressures.

Font size

Treasury yields fell on Thursday, giving back some of the recent gains that propelled longer-dated rates to levels not seen in decades.

The 10-year Treasury yield breached a level last seen in April 2002, before easing 5 basis points to 5.243%. The 10-year influences rates on mortgage and auto loans and credit card debt. The yield on the 30-year Treasury bond also hit its highest in 24 years before dropping more than 2 basis points to 5.613%.

Yields and prices move inversely. One basis point equals 0.01%.

Jeff Kilburg, CEO of KKM Financial, said he sees the 10-year yield pulling back to around 4.5%-4.75% if the U.S. and Iran can reach a deal to end the war. "If we're going to continue to stay in Iran, then that's going to be problematic for the 10-year yield."

Loading chart...

Government borrowing costs around the world continued their relentless march upward on Thursday, continuing a monthslong trend as investors voted with their feet over a lack of political will to tackle fiscal deficits, while inflation remains stubbornly above target and leading central banks move to push interest rates higher.

Major economies face "persistently large deficits and rising interest expenses — challenges long associated with debt-distressed emerging market sovereigns," the Institute of International Finance said last week.

Japan's 10-year yield hit its highest level since the mid-1990s. Japan's debt has come under pressure from a weaker yen and rate hikes by the Bank of Japan.

The yield on the German 10-year bund, the benchmark for the euro area, topped 3.6%, the highest since 2008, before easing back. Elsewhere in Europe, the French 10-year surged 8 basis points to 4.925%, Italy's 10-year was up 10 basis points to 4.706%, while the U.K.'s 10-year yield increased 5 basis points to 5.483%.

"It's worth noting, but people get pretty worked up about those sorts of spreads regularly, so I don't think it's a crisis point necessarily, as far as Germany versus France or Italy," said Michael Schumacher, former managing director at Wells Fargo. "If you look at some countries that have very poor structural dynamics, like the UK, and I'd be concerned about that. People don't typically trade gilts versus bunds as much, but just as a barometer of, say, market concern, I think that's one to watch."

Bonds had been moving in lockstep with oil prices, which have been turbulent as the U.S.-Israel war with Iran obstructed crude exports from the Middle East. Crude oil prices were higher on Thursday, with international benchmark Brent crude futures back above $100 a barrel.

"We could see [bond] buyers come in effectively to take advantage of those yields, which would have the effect of causing them to go down, but also one of the things that has kept the volatility in those yields in the long end of the curve has been what's going on with oil, what's going on with inflation," Nomi Prins, founder of Prinsights Global, told CNBC's "Squawk Box Europe" on Thursday.

But sovereign wealth funds and central banks, among the main long-term holders of Treasury debt, are unlikely to go along, Prins said.

"We could see movement ... in Treasury yields going down if oil prices go down significantly, if there's a resolution" in the Middle East, Prins added.

— With additional reporting from CNBC's Jeff Cox

What to Watch

AI outlook — possibilities, not facts

  • 10-year Treasury yield could pull back to 4.5%-4.75% if U.S. and Iran reach a deal to end the war

    Possible · Within weeks

  • Bond buyers may enter the market to take advantage of current yields, potentially pushing prices up

    Possible · Within days

  • Treasury yields could decline significantly if oil prices drop substantially due to Middle East resolution

    Possible · Within weeks

Open Questions

  • Will the U.S. and Iran reach a deal to end the conflict, as suggested by Jeff Kilburg?
  • How will oil prices evolve if Middle East tensions persist or ease?
  • Can central banks continue tightening without triggering broader financial instability?
  • What specific fiscal measures are being considered to address persistently large deficits in major economies?

Related Topics

This article was originally published by CNBC.

Related Stories

Taiwan’s per capita financial assets rank fifth in the world and second in Asia.
Developing·

Taiwan’s per capita financial assets rank fifth in the world and second in Asia.

According to the Allianz Group's 2026 Global Wealth Report, Taiwan's per capita financial assets reached 164,470 euros (approximately NT$5.95 million), ranking fifth in the world and second in Asia, second only to the United States, Switzerland, Denmark and Singapore. The report pointed out that in 2025, the total financial assets of Taiwanese households will increase by 8.7% annually to reach 4.5 trillion euros, and securities assets will grow by 17.7%, accounting for 34.9% of household assets, which is higher than the Asian average of 30.8%. Real growth after deducting inflation was 6.9%, with a cumulative growth rate of 41.5% since 2019, higher than the Asian and global averages. Allianz warns that slowing global economic growth, stagnant inflation and geopolitical fragmentation are the three major risks from 2026 to 2027, and AI will be the biggest variable in the future direction of wealth.

自由时报
2 min read
Lyft agrees to $272.5 million settlement over driver misclassification in California
Developing·

Lyft agrees to $272.5 million settlement over driver misclassification in California

Lyft has agreed to pay $272.5 million to settle a lawsuit alleging it violated California law by misclassifying drivers as independent contractors instead of employees, denying them minimum wage, overtime, and benefits. The settlement covers alleged violations from April 6, 2016 to December 15, 2020, and still requires judicial approval. California Labor Commissioner Lilia García-Brower praised the workers who came forward, noting the state will forgo its share to direct funds to affected drivers. Uber continues to face a similar lawsuit from the LCO.

TechCrunch
2 min read
Kevin Mandia raises $255.5 million for Armadin at over $2.5 billion valuation
Developing·

Kevin Mandia raises $255.5 million for Armadin at over $2.5 billion valuation

Kevin Mandia, founder of Mandiant, has raised $255.5 million for his new cybersecurity startup Armadin in a Series B round led by Andreessen Horowitz and Accel, valuing the company at over $2.5 billion. The round includes participation from Bain Capital Ventures, Redpoint, 8VC, Ballistic Ventures, Google Ventures, In-Q-Tel, Kleiner Perkins, and Menlo Ventures, bringing total funding to over $445 million just six months after a $190 million Series A.

TechCrunch
1 min read
Shin Kong Mitsukoshi's first-day sales reached 1.55 billion yuan and customers exceeded 145,000 on the first day of its anniversary celebration
BREAKING·

Shin Kong Mitsukoshi's first-day sales reached 1.55 billion yuan and customers exceeded 145,000 on the first day of its anniversary celebration

The first wave of Shin Kong Mitsukoshi's anniversary celebrations was led by six branches. On the first day, the sales reached NT$1.55 billion, and the number of customers exceeded 145,000. Highlights of the event include free points for purchasing cosmetics and co-branded products for Pokémon's 30th anniversary, which have driven the three major needs of starting a family, replacing a new phone, and self-rewarding. Home appliances, 3C, beauty, and clothing all grew at double digits.

自由时报
2 min read
Autogas prices increased for the second time in 24 hours
Developing·

Autogas prices increased for the second time in 24 hours

An increase of 4.65 lira was applied to LPG, whose liter price increased by 1.45 lira with the increase in Special Consumption Tax on October 1, effective from midnight. After the last increase, the liter price in metropolitan cities exceeded 40 lira and became 41.29 lira in Ankara, 41.20 lira in Istanbul European Side and Izmir, and 40.60 lira in Istanbul Anatolian Side. Gasoline and diesel prices remained unchanged.

Cumhuriyet
1 min read
U.S. stocks edged higher on Thursday, boosted by falling U.S. bond yields and weaker-than-expected inflation data
Developing·

U.S. stocks edged higher on Thursday, boosted by falling U.S. bond yields and weaker-than-expected inflation data

U.S. stocks closed slightly higher on Thursday, with the S&P 500 rising 0.19%, the Nasdaq rising 0.04%, and the Dow Jones rising 0.04%. U.S. bond yields fell from multi-year highs, Federal Reserve Vice Chairman Thomas Jefferson signaled that he may remain patient, and weaker-than-expected inflation data on Wednesday lowered expectations for an October interest rate hike. West Texas crude oil futures rose 2.7%, Micron's stock price rose 3% due to better-than-expected financial forecasts and increased customer financial commitments, Huida rose 1.09%, and AMD rose 0.65%. The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index rose 1.59%, and TSMC ADR rose 0.66%.

自由时报
1 min read
More on this topictreasury yields