Three countdowns, just one Friday. Three clocks are ticking at the same time today, and not really in favor of the same people. While Bitcoin regained 82,000 dollars last night against a backdrop of uncertain bets around the Fed, a report on American employment falls very early in the afternoon, a ransomware group puts Berlin under pressure until the end of the day, and Wall Street awaits its weekly dose of flow data. Three very different deadlines, only one thing in common: they will all move the markets directly. Here's when to watch, and what to expect.
The 2:30 p.m. NFP can shake the Fed
The American employment report (Non Farm Payrolls, the monthly count of job creations outside the agricultural sector) falls at 8:30 a.m. Washington time, or 2:30 p.m. in Paris. The consensus of economists is targeting around 53,000 job creations in August, a timid rebound after a failed July, when the American economy unexpectedly lost 23,000 jobs. The unemployment rate is expected to remain stable at 4.1%.
At the same time, the risk of a rate increase had already doubled in a few weeks, and the Fed must decide on September 15 and 16. A figure significantly lower than the consensus would revive bets on a status quo of rates. A significantly higher figure would do the opposite, and Bitcoin, which has only just recovered, generally does not like seconds.
Rhysida ultimatum threatens Berlin at end of day
On August 28, the Rhysida ransomware group posted an announcement on its leak site targeting the Berlin government: 5.79 TB of data, approximately 1.44 million files, a ransom of 30 bitcoins (approximately $2.3 million), and a one-week countdown to release. A week after August 28, that brings us straight to this Friday. The ultimatum falls at the end of the afternoon, around 4 p.m. Berlin time, the same time as in Paris since the two cities share the time zone. The mayor-governor has already decided. Berlin will not pay as we explained in our article dedicated to the subject.
Note that ransomware groups do not always carry out their threats in full. Some publish a fraction of the loot, others discreetly extend the deadline. The most likely scenario, however, remains at least partial publication, if only to preserve the credibility of the group with its next victims.
The BofA Flow Show, the reading that Wall Street never misses
Less spectacular. But just as closely followed by professional markets is the weekly note from Michael Hartnett, star strategist at Bank of America. Wall Street nicknamed it the Flow Show, published weekly with no fixed schedule publicly communicated. It summarizes where institutional money comes in and goes out: stocks, bonds, gold, cash, and sometimes crypto. Its recent editions have explored a recurring theme this year. Investors remain resolutely optimistic despite bond yields near 5%, a position that Hartnett readily compares to 1994, when a strong jobs market forced the Fed to tighten its tone more quickly than expected. With an NFP published the same day, this Friday's edition will have something to directly feed this reading grid.
Three meetings, three deadlines, and only one Friday to collect them. The NFP will dictate the macro narrative until the Fed meeting. Rhysida will test the firmness of a European government in the face of extortion. The Flow Show will tell if the investors who control billions started to move before everyone else, or if they are still looking elsewhere.
