Trump's low approval ratings threaten Republican congressional majority

President Donald Trump's sagging approval ratings are threatening Republicans' grip on Congress as the midterm campaign enters its final two-month sprint.

With Labor Day marking the traditional start of the fall campaign, Republicans are fighting to protect narrow congressional majorities in an election likely to serve as a referendum on Trump's second term.

The stakes are particularly high for a president who has dominated American politics for nearly a decade.

Many election analysts favor Democrats to capture the House. A victory would give the party control of congressional committees and subpoena power, opening the door to investigations of the Trump administration while making it significantly harder for the White House to advance its legislative agenda.

Democratic leaders have already promised investigations into what they allege is corruption within the administration.

The Senate race is less certain. A Democratic takeover would give the party the power to block Trump's executive and judicial nominees, including any potential Supreme Court pick.

For Republicans, Trump's unpopularity is emerging as a major obstacle.

Recent Reuters/Ipsos polling has shown Trump's approval rating near historic lows, with voters particularly unhappy about the economy and the war with Iran. His net disapproval is nearly twice what it was ahead of the 2018 midterms, when Democrats gained 40 House seats.

Democratic voters are also showing greater enthusiasm than Republicans, a pattern reflected in recent special and primary elections. Registered voters currently favor Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by five percentage points.

History presents another challenge. The president's party has lost House seats in almost every midterm election since 1938.

"I think that there is just a general sense that the president is not focused on the number one issue with voters, which is affordability," said Jessica Taylor, a Senate analyst at the Cook Political Report.

"If you want to voice your displeasure with the president, the only way you can do that during the midterm elections is by voting against his party."

Democrats, however, face their own problems.

Progressive and democratic socialist candidates have defeated establishment moderates in several important primaries, fueling questions over whether ideological divisions could complicate the party's broader midterm message.

Republicans also retain significant structural advantages.

The GOP currently holds a 218-214 House majority and could gain as many as 10 seats from mid-decade redistricting battles, potentially cushioning against a Democratic wave.

All 435 House seats and roughly one-third of the Senate will be contested Nov. 3.

The Senate map is particularly difficult for Democrats. Even if they prevail in competitive races in Georgia, Maine, Michigan and North Carolina, they would still need to win at least two of Alaska, Iowa, Ohio and Texas — four states Trump carried by double digits in 2024.

Money could also provide Republicans with a significant advantage.

Although several Democratic candidates have raised more money than their Republican opponents individually, GOP committees and allied super PACs have greater overall reserves. Trump's super PAC alone holds about $400 million.

"There is no doubt Democrats will win the national popular vote," Democratic strategist Jesse Ferguson said. "It's a question of whether those structural barriers prevent them from winning the majority."

Republicans are trying to turn attention away from Trump by portraying Democrats as dangerously far to the left, repeatedly attacking progressive candidates as socialists and communists.

Among their targets is Abdul El-Sayed, Michigan's progressive Democratic Senate nominee.

"This is a 'Contrast for America' year," House Speaker Mike Johnson said, invoking Republicans' successful "Contract with America" campaign in 1994. "It's a contrast between common sense and crazy."

Whether that message can overcome voter frustration over living costs remains a central question.

Several crucial Senate battlegrounds are experiencing the effects of administration policies firsthand. Iowa farmers are grappling with higher energy costs and tariffs, Texas cattle producers have opposed lifting import taxes on foreign beef, and trade tensions with Canada are affecting industries in Michigan and Maine.

Republicans will attempt to energize their base at an unusual midterm convention this week centered on Trump's tax cuts and other administration policies.

But putting Trump at the heart of the event carries its own risk. The president is scheduled to speak on both nights, further tying vulnerable Republican candidates to a president whose approval ratings have become one of the party's biggest electoral liabilities.

Beyond the economy and Iran, campaigns across the country are also being shaped by health care, the war in Gaza and disputes over the rapid expansion of data centers.

Eight weeks remain before Election Day, leaving time for the political environment to change. But analysts say the biggest question may be whether Trump can reverse voters' increasingly negative views before Republicans pay the price at the ballot box.

"Can Republicans get their enthusiasm up some more?" said Kyle Kondik, an elections expert at the University of Virginia's Center for Politics. "The flip side is that there is no recovery, and Trump's approval decline is terminal. That's the big question of the election to me."