◎Xu Qixiang
In the nine-in-one general election at the end of the year, the election campaign in the capital has become a high-tension showdown.
The latest TVBS Taipei mayoral election poll shows that Chiang Wanan received 49% support, about 8 percentage points ahead of Shen Boyang's 41%. On the surface, it seems to maintain his advantage. However, an ancient saying goes: "It is unlucky to see fish in the abyss, and it is unlucky to see hidden wisdom." The key to political observation is to see the qualitative changes in the underlying structure. Inferring from dynamic trends, institutional effects and cross-data, this poll is by no means ultra-stable. Instead, it reveals that the election has entered an extremely tight tie.
1. The dynamic significance of the sharp contraction of the gap within five months
In the May survey of this year (2026), Chiang's 58% victory over Shen's 30% has now shrunk to 8 percentage points. The gap has shrunk by 20 percentage points in just a few months. Not only that, the latest poll released by polling expert Dai Li'an in mid-October showed that Jiang Wanan's support was 17% behind Shen Boyang.
Political scientist Saler pointed out that changes in voters' intentions reflect the reshaping of information flow. It is easy to fall into a blind spot if you ignore the trend and only look at a single section. Within a few months, 20% of voters switched, confirming that the center and floating voters moved dramatically.
2. Structural blind spots reveal that statistics are actually tied
1. There is no significant difference after correction for institutional effects: the survey often suffers from systematic bias due to sampling. TVBS has a blue bias of about 3% to 7% for many years, and after correction, the actual gap shrinks to the critical point of 3% to 5%. When the difference is less than the sampling error, the confidence intervals overlap, and statistically it is a tie.
2. Sampling party bias: This sample shows a structure of 60% blue and white and 40% green. In the blue and white high-sample sample, it still won 41%, showing that the green camp and the center voters have strong cohesion.
3. The flow of the third force and the middle voters: According to ancient times, "Soldiers have no constant momentum, and water has no constant shape." Cross-analysis shows that 53% of Huang Shanshan's supporters turned to Shen in the previous term, while only 39% went to Chiang. Shen, the median voter, also received 38% support, evening the advantage of the defending champion.
4. The shrinkage of core voters and advantageous areas: Chiang’s lead in the blue camp’s natal district shrank significantly, Shilin Beitou was overtaken by Shen; the generational advantage of the main force between 40 and 59 years old was evened, and 41% of the dissatisfaction was actually transformed into vote erosion.
3. Internal reaction and tactical reorganization of the blue camp
Zhao Shaokang, an important political figure, publicly warned the Chiang camp that they underestimated the enemy and were arrogant; the Chiang camp urgently called in traders, and the sudden change of political views confirmed the sense of crisis. When the expectation to “change the party and do it” reaches 42% higher than “the blue camp continues to do it”, political party support is already lacking.
Jiang Wanan's sudden change of political views recently confirmed that his sense of crisis is rising.
The ancients said: "Be fearful when faced with trouble, and it is easy to make plans." The top priority for the defending champion is to repair policy deficiencies; the challenger needs to strengthen the credibility of the team. The capital election campaign is already a high-tension showdown.
