Donald Trump's sudden U-turn on Ukraine is described as an attempt to reverse the Republicans' weak opinion figures ahead of the American mid-term elections in early November. The Ukrainian population must pay the price.
Once again, he turns on President Volodymyr Zelenskyy and blames Ukraine for the record high world market prices of diesel. According to sources to the Financial Times, Trump is considering slowing arms shipments to Ukraine and ending intelligence sharing with the country, which is defending itself against Russia's war of invasion.
For Ukraine, this would have immediate consequences:
Here in Kiev and other Ukrainian cities under fire from Russia's most advanced robots, air defenses rely heavily on warnings from the United States. When the Russians prepare bombers and load them with cruise missiles at bases in Murmansk or Engels, American scouts are often the first to discover this.
That information from the United States means that the Ukrainian air defense has time to go up to the highest alert in time and it gives civilians a chance to get to safety. With Russia's stepped-up attacks, such a loss of information would mean that more people would be killed in the attacks.
US signals intelligence is also of great importance to Ukraine at the front. The information that the Americans intercept about troop movements is important for Ukraine to be able to predict where Russia is planning its next offensive. In addition, the American surveillance of the Black Sea is important for Ukraine.
If the deliveries of weapons are delayed or paused, it will also be felt first in the cities that are being bombarded with robots. The United States is the only country that can currently supply Ukraine with sufficiently large volumes of Patriot robots, the only reliable defense against Russia's ballistic robots.
If there are no Patriot robots, Ukraine's electricity and water supply will be even more exposed. The "truce" announced by Trump on Sunday, which stipulates that Ukraine and Russia will not attack each other's energy facilities, was broken by the Kremlin immediately after it was announced when power stations in Kharkiv and Kiev were attacked.
In the slightly longer term, paused arms deliveries from the US would lead to a profound weakening of Ukraine's ability to strike against Russia. Long-range robots such as ATACMS are needed when Ukraine has to strike air bases or air defenses on the occupied Crimean peninsula.
However, Ukraine will still be able to attack oil refineries in Russia, despite the fact that this is exactly what Trump wants to see an end to through the threat.
Ukraine has been attacking Russia's gas and oil facilities with high intensity since spring, and to carry out these attacks no American weapons are needed. Russia's vast land area makes it impossible to protect every refinery with advanced air defenses, and Ukraine's domestically produced drones have proven effective.
Ukraine has plenty of this type of long-range drone, and the defense receives supplies from several arms companies that develop projectiles with increasingly longer ranges.
For Zelenskyi and the Ukrainian state leadership, a difficult balancing act now awaits in the dialogue with the United States. The American support is necessary for the long-term survival of Ukraine and for the winter not to be as painful as the last one. At the same time, the attacks on Russia's energy facilities are the most effective way to make the war financially felt for the Kremlin and the Russian population.
