For months, Donald Trump's negotiators tried to negotiate peace in Ukraine with Vladimir Putin, largely without the Europeans. But the Russian president is making no concessions on his key demands. Now, of all people, the Europeans are supposed to help advance the negotiations.
After meeting with Putin in the Kremlin, American special envoy Steve Witkoff announced on Thursday that European representatives would take part in the next round of negotiations. “They are our partners and it is important that they are involved,” explained Witkoff before departure from Moscow on Thursday evening. Together with Trump's son-in-law, Jared Kushner, he then made a stopover in Dublin, where the two US negotiators briefed Zelenskyj on the talks in the Kremlin.
But high-ranking European diplomats and politicians fear that Washington and Moscow could jointly pressure the Europeans into making far-reaching concessions in order to still reach an agreement. Diplomats warned about Putin's true intentions on the sidelines of the European political community meeting in Dublin, which Zelensky attended.
While the Americans were looking for a profitable deal with Russia, Europeans believe Putin is pursuing a completely different goal: restoring Russian dominance over large parts of Eurasia. Concessions such as ceding Ukrainian territory or easing sanctions would at best satisfy him in the short term, but in the long term they would encourage him to carry out further attacks.
As insiders report, Russia insists on making Europe's future security architecture a central part of the Ukraine negotiations. The USA appeared open to this at the recent talks in Abu Dhabi.
The Europeans therefore made two red lines clear to the Americans and Ukraine in intensive discussions: First, peace must be achieved in Ukraine. Only then would negotiations on the European security order be conceivable.
And if NATO structures are affected, the alliance's consensus principle applies. The USA could not decide on this alone with Russia. The affected Eastern European and Nordic states would also have to have a say.
The worry is that Putin is luring Americans with the prospect of lucrative deals and normalization of relations while not giving an inch on his actual war aims. There is also talk of reviving earlier discussion formats such as the NATO-Russia Council.
European diplomats report that it has now dawned on Witkoff and Kushner that Putin is hardly offering them anything. The ideas of both sides are still far apart.
Now the Europeans fear that Washington will demand concessions from them in order to advance the stalled talks. This could particularly include easing European sanctions against Russia. The Europeans would then not face a Russian negotiating delegation together with the Americans, but could be put under pressure by both sides.
To prevent this, Chancellor Friedrich Merz, French President Emmanuel Macron and British Prime Minister Andy Burnham are pushing for a structured negotiation process with clear goals and a timetable. According to European diplomatic circles, it is still far too early for a major summit at which the heads of state and government resolve the last points of contention.
This is precisely why the question of who represents Europe in the talks is so crucial, emphasized Council President António Costa. Because Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni has sparked a dispute about whether the so-called E3 - Merz, Macron and Burnham - really speak for all of Europe. In a letter, Meloni criticized the previous discussion formats and called for a special European envoy.
On the sidelines of the European Political Community summit in Dublin, several heads of government spoke out in favor of entrusting Costa or the EU foreign policy chief, Kaja Kallas, with this task. Both have a mandate until 2029 and could therefore outlast possible changes of government in the member states.
Germany, on the other hand, is sticking to the so-called E3 format with France and Great Britain, supplemented by representatives of the European institutions and NATO. Diplomats argue that this model has already proven itself in the negotiations over the Iranian nuclear agreement.
They continue to say that it reflects the European balance of power and is at the same time small enough to remain able to act. Above all, it would be ready for immediate use. The selection of a new special envoy, as Meloni is calling for, would take too long.
Following Meloni's move, Costa put the issue of European representation on the agenda of the informal EU summit in Dublin on Friday. But the disunity plays into Moscow's hands, as many heads of government are aware of. The fact that Europeans don't even know who should speak for them is a classic Putin argument. Recently, Kushner also made fun of it.
Meanwhile, a meeting between Trump and Putin could take place next week on the sidelines of the APEC summit in Shenzhen, China, possibly with the participation of Chinese President Xi Jinping. European diplomats expect that the next steps could be determined there. The time pressure is increasing for Trump: from January 2027 he will have to face a Congress completely controlled by the opposition.
