An anomalous heat wave extends the summer: temperatures up to 30 degrees at the end of September

It would be a heat wave. The last (but not even certain) anticyclone of the season still has the strength to rise from Morocco and Algeria to continue to make us sweat beyond any reasonable limit of the calendar. It is scheduled for next weekend, after a breezy and slightly rainy break on Thursday and Friday.

“Even in the last weekend of September temperatures will reach 30 degrees in some areas” confirms Bernardo Gozzini, former director of the Cnr-Lamma consortium of Florence. "It will mostly be sunny, the sea will still be warm. In short, it would seem like the perfect climate for going to the beach."

"It's typical late August weather"

If we didn't have the calendar before our eyes, we would think of a typical post-August holiday weather, mosquitoes included. “Temperatures like this could have been normal a month ago” explains Gozzini. "Instead, the maximum 30 degrees can remain until October 2-3. Technically we cannot talk about a heat wave, we need abnormal heat and a persistence of at least six days, but this summer certainly doesn't want to end."

An autumn that still tastes like summer

Yet today, September 23, astronomical autumn begins. Meteorologists, to simplify the statistics, start the season from September 1st.

However you look at it, the weather remains clearly summery. “The maximum 30 degrees today seems like paradise to us compared to the 38 we lived with for a good part of the summer” reflects the meteorologist. "We have three hours less sun per day, and this definitely allows us to breathe in the night. The seasonal forecasts, however, do not suggest any turn towards the cold. And the averages for the period should actually fluctuate between 25 and 27 degrees, to drop below 25 at the beginning of October".

According to Lamma's seasonal forecasts "above average temperatures are expected in both October and November, particularly in October". Even the monthly forecasts of the Air Force show little variability: "Temperatures will continue to remain above the average for the period throughout the country". This at least until mid-October.

Rain is still scarce

Another part of the summer, the drought, is also extending beyond normal. Between today and tomorrow a splash of rain will bring coolness and humidity, but it won't last. “Some bad weather is expected in Sardinia on Thursday, on Friday in the Centre-South, especially on the Adriatic side” explains Gozzini.

"In September it rained less than normal. Even October has struggled to reach rainfall averages for some years. For December we expect more rain than snow. Yet these months are vital for recharging the aquifers."

It's still early to blame El Niño

We can't blame El Niño either, at least for now. The warm equatorial Pacific current will, according to all forecasts, be extremely intense. There are those who define it as historic.

"But its effects will reach their maximum between autumn and winter. As the name indicates, El Niño is a typical Christmas phenomenon" explains the meteorologist.

"Usually the most affected regions are the Americas, Australia and Asia. The Mediterranean and Europe are affected indirectly. This year, however, its intensity should be unprecedented and it is possible that the warming of the Atlantic will involve us too. We will understand it, because these extremes are new even for us climate scientists".