The expert explained the reasons for the growth of Urals oil above $110

The rise in the price of Russian Urals oil above $110 is a combination of a geopolitical premium and a decline in Russian production, and not a one-time speculative surge, explained entrepreneur, fund manager and founder of the SharesPro fintech platform Denis Astafiev. However, in a conversation with Lenta.ru, he noted that this does not open the way to $200 per barrel.

According to him, the price jumped sharply on September 15 amid the escalation of the Houthi conflict with Saudi-backed forces. Moreover, in April 2026, the price had already reached a historical maximum, that is, the current level is not a record, but a return to past values. Additional upward pressure comes from falling production: according to the IEA, it has decreased noticeably due to drone strikes on refineries and sanctions on equipment. The forecast for the coming years was also lowered, the specialist specified.

“The realistic horizon for Urals is noticeably higher than current levels, but far from $200. The $200 scenario would require a simultaneous complete closure of the Strait of Hormuz, a long stop in exports from several Gulf countries, and the absence of a compensating increase in OPEC+ or US production,” Astafiev explained.

According to him, such an escalation is not confirmed by current market dynamics. The volatility of Urals this year rather shows the ability of prices to make sharp reversals in both directions when the geopolitical background changes, rather than a movement towards a qualitatively new price regime, Astafiev concluded.