Dusseldorf. The US stock markets are starting an eventful week on a balanced note. The ongoing tensions in the Middle East and the prospect of important dates later in the week are causing investors to act hesitantly on Monday.
After a relaxation in the morning, the price of oil will rise again from midday. A barrel (159 liters) of North Sea Brent for delivery in December rose by around 1.9 percent to over 106 US dollars. WTI oil is becoming more expensive to a similar extent.
US President Donald Trump surprisingly announced an immediate “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine on Sunday. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyj welcomed the move, but said he was still waiting for details from the US government and pointed to ongoing Russian attacks. Russia has not confirmed the announced ceasefire. Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said that contacts with the US side were ongoing.
Trump also said he agreed on extensive diesel deliveries with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Friday. Politically, however, the development remains explosive, as it could also shift the balance of power in the Ukraine war, said Andreas Lipkow, chief market analyst at CMC Markets.
The situation in the Middle East also remains tense: Yemen's Houthi rebels have expanded their attacks on Saudi Arabia. Hopes that the situation in the Strait of Hormuz will normalize have been “shattered,” says Bjarne Schieldrop, commodities analyst at Swedish bank SEB.
The Iran-backed Houthi militia claimed responsibility for an attack on Riyadh's international airport on Saturday that killed 13 people. Further attacks on tankers in the Strait of Hormuz, which is largely blocked by Iran, were also reported over the weekend.
Investors in the USA are waiting for the start of the accounting season this week with the results of important US banks. Lipkow says: “With the official start of the US earnings season, investors are in for a potentially turbulent week.” The big banks in particular will have to show whether their business development justifies the high expectations of the stock market, he says.
Analysts say investors particularly want to know how the recent sharp rise in bond yields will affect acquisitions, lending and refinancing costs. Four of the six largest US financial institutions, JPMorgan, Goldman Sachs, Citigroup and Wells Fargo, will present their results on Tuesday. The financial figures from Morgan Stanley and Bank of America will follow on Wednesday.
Traders are betting on a boost from corporate earnings after weeks of high oil prices and global bond yields hit their highest in decades. For the further course of interest rate policy, investors are looking to new inflation data on Wednesday and a speech by US Federal Reserve Chairman Kevin Warsh on Thursday. The majority of markets currently expect that the US Federal Reserve will raise key interest rates again by December.
The seven-day annual meeting of the International Monetary Fund (IMF) and the World Bank begins in Bangkok this Monday. Finance ministers and central bankers from all over the world meet here. IMF chief Kristalina Georgieva said on Monday that the global economy would continue to grow at around three percent. High investments in the infrastructure for artificial intelligence (AI) are an important driver. Asian economies such as China, India and Thailand, which, alongside the USA, supply the corresponding hardware, are particularly likely to benefit.
The IMF plans to publish its new forecasts for the global economy and the most important countries on Tuesday. In July, the IMF forecast global growth of 3.0 percent for this year, which is expected to increase to 3.4 percent in 2027.
Also on the agenda for discussions is the high level of public debt in some countries, which is driving up yields and having an impact on financial stability.
Micron: News of a technological breakthrough by Chinese rival CXMT is putting pressure on Micron shares. The memory chip manufacturer's US-listed shares fell by 3.6 percent. The state-backed competitor is about to deliver advanced DRAM chips, which is causing investors to worry about loss of market share in China and a drop in global prices.
IonQ: A multi-billion dollar takeover is sending the shares of the quantum computer specialist IonQ plummeting. The shares fell by around 5.7 percent at the start of the US stock exchange after IonQ announced that it wanted to take over the unlisted cybersecurity company Elisity as part of a stock transaction for up to 1.3 billion dollars. This is intended to expand business in the field of quantum security.
IREN: A media report about a partnership with the AI specialist Anthropic gives IREN a boost. The US-listed securities of the Australian data center operator rose by around two percent at the opening of US trading. Anthropic has signed a multi-year, as yet undisclosed cloud contract with IREN, the news portal “The Information” reported, citing insiders. A statement from IREN was initially not available. IREN boss Daniel Roberts spoke of a new partnership with a leading AI company when presenting the quarterly figures at the end of August.
