US diesel export ban could strain EU energy market already hit by Russian supply cuts
Quick Look
Brussels officials warn that a potential 90-day US diesel export ban could further strain Europe's energy market, which is already facing reduced Russian supplies due to sanctions and Middle East disruptions, with the US supplying about a third of Europe's diesel imports this year.
AI-generated summary
Why It Matters
The EU has sharply reduced purchases of Russian energy since the 2022 escalation of the Ukraine conflict, with Russia's share of gas imports falling from 45% to 12% and oil imports from 27% to about 2% by 2025, prompting diversification efforts including increased US diesel and LNG supplies.
A US ban on diesel exports could squeeze the EU’s energy market, which is already strained by reduced Russian supplies due to sanctions and disruptions in flows from the Middle East, officials in Brussels have warned.
European Commission spokesman Olof Gill told Politico on Thursday that Brussels was concerned by reports that Washington could halt diesel exports for 90 days, warning that any disruption “would risk negatively impacting both sides.”
The US has supplied about a third of Europe’s diesel imports this year, with its share rising to around half in August, according to government data. Prices at the pump have already reached record highs in Germany and the Netherlands.
Commission spokeswoman Anna-Kaisa Itkonen said Brussels was monitoring the markets and security of supply “very, very closely,” noting that the US was a “major supplier” of both diesel and liquefied natural gas as part of the bloc’s “diversification strategy since 2022.”
Trump backed the idea of restricting exports on Tuesday as US diesel prices hit a record $6.52 a gallon ($1.72 per liter). “I’ve said let’s not send out the diesel,” he told reporters ahead of a meeting with Ukraine’s Vladimir Zelensky.
Trump has also repeatedly urged Zelensky to halt Ukrainian strikes on Russian refineries, saying the attacks were contributing to a global diesel shortage.
The issue was raised during talks between Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov and US Secretary of State Marco Rubio in New York on Wednesday. According to the Russian Foreign Ministry, Lavrov said Ukrainian attacks on energy and cross-border infrastructure were deliberately contributing to instability in global energy markets.
Russia has also restricted fuel exports to stabilize its domestic market. The measures run through January, although direct producers have been permitted to export diesel, marine fuel and gasoline since September.
Supplies have also been squeezed by the US-Israeli war on Iran, which has severely disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a route that normally carries around a fifth of global oil and liquefied natural gas shipments. Gulf diesel and gasoline exports fell to just over a quarter of pre-war levels in August, according to the International Energy Agency.
The EU has sharply reduced purchases of Russian energy since the 2022 escalation of the Ukraine conflict. Russia’s share of the bloc’s gas imports plunged from 45% to 12% by 2025, while its share of oil imports dropped from 27% to about 2%.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
EU officials will continue monitoring diesel markets and supply security very closely
Very likely · Within days
EU will seek to diversify diesel supplies further if US exports are restricted
Likely · Within weeks
Open Questions
- Will the US actually implement a 90-day diesel export ban?
- How would EU member states respond to potential diesel shortages?
- What alternative supplies could Europe access if US diesel exports are restricted?
- How long would Middle East shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz persist?
