US refinery peak utilization insufficient to offset global diesel deficit, Euler report says
Quick Look
US oil refineries operating above 95% utilization for 14 weeks cannot compensate for global diesel supply shortfall, according to Euler analyst Andrey Polishchuk, as declining exports from top suppliers Russia, US, and Saudi Arabia widen crack spreads, while European and Asian refining dynamics further strain global inventories.
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Why It Matters
US refinery utilization has remained above 95% for 14 consecutive weeks, a level not seen since 1997-1998, while diesel exports from top suppliers Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia are declining, contributing to a global supply deficit.
MOSCOW, September 14. /TASS/. Peak utilization rates at US oil refineries will fail to offset the global diesel supply deficit, according to a report by Andrey Polishchuk, senior oil, gas, and transport analyst at Euler. The report was obtained by TASS.
Concurrently, a decline in diesel exports from the top three suppliers – Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia – will only widen crack spreads (the price gap between crude oil and refined products), he noted.
US refinery utilization has held above 95% for 14 consecutive weeks, a historic high last seen in 1997 and 1998, when comparable levels persisted for 24 weeks, the report says. Consequently, Euler expects scheduled refinery turnarounds to be delayed due to lucrative US refining margins.
Meanwhile, European refinery utilization climbed to 90.4% in August, but further upside is limited, as are Europe's refined product imports. The situation will be worsened by falling exports from Saudi Arabia, which supplied about 17% of Europe's diesel imports in 2025, hampering fuel inventory building.
China is stabilizing the global market by drawing down oil stockpiles. "Rising utilization rates at Chinese refineries (+4.5 percentage points in August) and a surge in refined product exports (+29% month-on-month to 6 million tonnes) will boost global supply," the report reads. However, high Chinese throughput also stimulates crude imports, accelerating the depletion of global inventories, Euler says.
While Asian refined product supply is growing, some volumes will be diverted to cover deficits on external markets, further draining regional stockpiles, the document notes.
What to Watch
AI outlook — possibilities, not facts
Euler expects scheduled refinery turnarounds in the US to be delayed due to lucrative refining margins.
Likely · Within weeks
Falling diesel exports from Saudi Arabia will worsen Europe's fuel inventory building situation.
Likely · Within months
Open Questions
- How long will US refineries maintain utilization above 95%?
- What specific factors are driving the decline in diesel exports from Russia, the US, and Saudi Arabia?
- To what extent will China's refined product exports offset deficits in other regions?
