USA: Almost 500 races and a clear direction: This is how America is betting on the outcome of the midterms

For the first time, US citizens are allowed to bet on the outcome of the congressional elections. Handelsblatt has evaluated betting markets on Polymarket and Kalshi. There are clear results.

The Polymarket app on the cell phone and the Capitol: For the first time this year, large-scale bets are being made on the outcome of the congressional elections. Photo: Getty, Bloomberg. brckmnn [M]

Dusseldorf. America is betting on its own elections like never before. The midterms next Tuesday are the first congressional elections on which US citizens can legally bet on a large scale - and they are seizing the opportunity.

By the end of September, according to the Reuters news agency, more than twice as much money had been bet on individual congressional races as in the entire 2024 election year - and the hot phase hadn't even begun yet. In the final week alone, stakes in the markets monitored by Handelsblatt grew by another third, to almost half a billion dollars.

CNN calls this year's election cycle the “first prediction market election” in US history. For investors and speculators, the choice has already been decided, as an analysis by Handelsblatt shows. They see a double victory for the Democrats - and one of the most heavily bet politicians in the country as a clear loser.