Warsaw, Düsseldorf. After Donald Trump met with one of Vladimir Putin's envoys, fears of an agreement that would be detrimental to Europe are growing. Next Wednesday and Thursday, the US government plans to negotiate with Russia and Ukraine in Abu Dhabi.
After the meeting in the White House, Trump indicated that he no longer wanted to negotiate just a peace agreement for Ukraine: “It will affect more than just Ukraine, and I could even say that it could affect all of Europe.” Everyone would be thrilled, he claimed.
A framework for European security defined by the USA and Russia? The prospect is poorly received in Brussels and national capitals. “According to our information and that of our allies, the threat from Russia will continue to grow and we must expect an escalation,” said Polish Prime Minister Donald Tusk in an interview with Handelsblatt and other media. “The first targets are of course the Baltic states and Poland.”
Poland's Foreign Minister Radosław Sikorski became even clearer in a conversation with journalists. He warned that American negotiators believed they could persuade Putin to agree to a mutually beneficial deal through territorial concessions - and misjudged the Russians' motives.
Trump's confidant Jared Kushner had written on Platform X that they wanted to create “a sustainable framework for long-term security and stability in Europe”. He named “constant security consultations,” “reliable crisis communications,” “greater military transparency,” and “mutual measures to reduce escalation risks” as further goals.
Poland warns against restoration of “Russian empire”
Trump and Kushner did not address the core of European concerns. There are fears in Europe that it is not possible to freeze the Ukraine conflict along the current front lines with Putin and that such agreements will only weaken the position of the Europeans.
Even the timing is viewed critically in the EU. “In winter, Putin may have less incentive to reach a deal,” Tusk said. “We have to be realistic.” The background is that conditions for the Ukrainian population are harsh in winter and Russia can improve its negotiating position by destroying civil infrastructure such as electricity and thermal power plants. One must “be very careful about Russia’s true intentions,” warned Tusk.
Sikorski's warnings also went further. The American negotiators fail to understand that Putin is not interested in deals, but rather in expanding Russia's dominance over Europe: "It's about restoring the Russian empire." At the same time, Sikorski criticized the American negotiation strategy: “Sometimes it looks as if more pressure is being put on the victim than on the aggressor.”
There is also a dispute about who travels to Abu Dhabi for Europe. Kushner had announced that he would consult the Europeans on the sidelines of the negotiations. They are usually represented by the so-called “E3 format”, in which Germany, France and Great Britain are brought together.
Costa supports Meloni's advance
Italy's Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni is now calling for EU heads of government to appoint a common representative instead of leaving the negotiations to individual governments. In a letter to EU Council President António Costa, she criticized the E3 format. The uncoordinated diplomatic advance by various European states threatens to weaken Europe's influence on the peace negotiations.
Meloni receives support from Poland. “I agree with Prime Minister Meloni,” said Foreign Minister Sikorski. "We need legitimate European representation in this process because we are paying for this war. For us, the stakes are much higher because it is about our security - especially if the Russians go back to their 2021 ultimatums." At that time, Moscow had, among other things, demanded that NATO reduce its military presence in Eastern Europe.
Costa also supports Meloni's demand. “I share your view that the European Union must be appropriately involved in the talks,” writes Costa in a reply letter to Meloni, which is available to Handelsblatt. “The interests of the European Union must be represented by its institutions.”
Tusk, on the other hand, took a more cautious tone. He wanted to avoid a debate about which states should be allowed to represent Europe and in what format. Such a dispute carries the risk of dividing Europeans, especially in a crucial phase of the peace negotiations.
The dispute should now be fought at the highest level. Costa writes in his letter that he will put the discussion on the agenda for the EU summit on November 13th.
The Russian government is watching all this with satisfaction. The European side has not yet seen any willingness to discuss questions about a future security system on the continent, said Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov, according to the Russian news agency Interfax. The Europeans have not yet even appointed a negotiator.
