V advanced in exposed areas

V advanced in exposed areas

SVT's polling station survey shows that voters with a non-European background voted to a greater extent for the red-green parties. The Left Party also made strong progress in several vulnerable areas.

But that does not prove that people who have recently received Swedish citizenship vote in the same way.

- For the group born outside Europe, there are surveys that indicate an advantage for parties that have been in opposition during this term. But the group that has just obtained citizenship is still a wider group than that, and comes from different backgrounds and regions, says national economist Henrik Andersson at Uppsala University, who has, among other things, studied voter turnout among people with an immigrant background.

"Just a hypothesis"

SVT's calculation shows that it is about tens of thousands of votes in favor of the red-greens - but there are many uncertainties. For example, we do not know what the turnout looked like in the various groups.

In the video above, SVT reviews how many people were granted Swedish citizenship during the Tidö years, where they come from - and whether they may have influenced the election.

According to Henrik Andersson, the group of new citizens can mathematically have influenced such an even election, but that requires assumptions about both turnout and party choice.

- It's just a hypothesis, nothing that can currently be empirically verified.

Election researcher Henrik Ekengren Oscarsson agrees.

- It easily becomes a philosophical question exactly which groups determine an even election. It can be argued that in principle any groups decided. The politics of the parties, substantive issues, actions, ideological winds, macroeconomics, mobilization are the heavy recurring explanations. Within basically all groups there is voting for all possible parties, he says.